Economist predicts recession will hold off until 2021
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Presidential candidates in 2020 will likely not face an economic recession in the campaign, if a banking leader’s prediction proves true.
“Our stance is a recession is perhaps two years away. The U.S. economic expansion continues to about 2021,” Daniel Crawford, managing director and chief investment officer of First National Bank Wealth Management, told about 200 business and community leaders last week at the Economic Growth Connection of Westmoreland’s annual luncheon.
Speaking at the Ramada by Wyndham Greensburg Hotel & Conference Center in Hempfield, Crawford said that if the nation makes it to this June or July, it will be the longest economic expansion in recent years.
“It’s not that bad out there,” Crawford said.
Bloomberg reports that economists surveyed felt the risk of a recession is at a six-year high, and that three-quarters of corporate CFOs in the United States expect a recession by the end of 2020.
Despite the slowing of China’s economy and Britain’s exit from the European Union, there is not a global recession. There has never been a global recession without the United States being in a recession, Crawford said.
Another reason for feeling confident that a recession is not around the corner has been the average hourly wage increase of about 3.2 percent, which is below the 4 percent mark that usually precedes a recession, Crawford said.
Crawford did offer a caveat to his prediction — the “dysfunction in Washington.”
“Will (Congress) legislate or investigate?” Crawford asked.
House Democrats this week issued 81 subpoenas to organizations associated with President Trump as part of a wide-ranging probe into alleged wrongdoing.
“It looks like we are heading down” the path of investigations, Crawford said.