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John Dorfman Columns category

Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies at 88
John Dorfman: Contestant rides Palantir’s 446% gain to stock derby win
A 446% gain in Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) propelled Christy Anderson to a victory in the 2024-25 running of Dorfman’s Three-Stock Derby, an annual stock-picking contest. Anderson of Las Vegas is chief operating officer of a small company that makes radio frequency amplifiers with military applications. As such, she became...
John Dorfman: Go off the beaten path with mid-cap stocks
You’re probably hearing a lot — much of it malarkey — about how to position your investment portfolio in an age of tariffs and trade wars. One piece of advice you may hear, which at least makes some sense, is that mid-capitalization stocks are less dependent on foreign suppliers and...
John Dorfman: 5 foreign stocks worth considering as U.S. market lags
This year through March 21, stocks were up 9% in France, 15% in Germany and 18% in Hong Kong. In the U.S., stocks were down 3%. A little international diversification might be a good idea, especially with U.S. stocks currently on the expensive side. Yet many American investors have 100%...
John Dorfman: CEOs at 197 companies made big stock sales lately
Company insiders are ditching their own stock more than usual. An exception is oil and gas executives, some of whom are buying while their shares are depressed. To gauge insider sentiment, look at the ratio of buys to sells by top executives and large shareholders. According to Gurufocus.com, about 34%...
John Dorfman: Want to predict the economy? Well, then enter my derby
Terry Johnson, the winner of my Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT) for 2024, likes to count trucks. Specifically, he counts the number of big rigs — 18-wheelers and the like — on a 45-mile stretch between Lincoln and York, Neb. More trucks means the economy is doing well. Fewer...
John Dorfman: How to make a terrible stock market bet
There are no sure ways to win in the stock market. But here’s a fairly sure way to lose: Invest in a stock that sells for 100 times revenue or more. The price/sales ratio for General Motors is less than one, for McDonald’s Corp. about 9, and for Microsoft about...
John Dorfman: 5 Balance Sheet Powerhouses I recommend
“Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing,” said football coach Vince Lombardi years ago. Many investors feel the same way about earnings. Excuse me, Lombardi disciples, but earnings aren’t the only thing. To withstand unexpected hardships or to seize timely opportunities, a company’s financial strength is also key. Once a...
John Dorfman: Bank of New York Mellon and Fox show value, momentum
Last year, momentum stocks were up 46%, growth stocks 36% and value stocks only 12%. As a longtime value investor, I find those figures (from S&P Dow Jones Indices) discouraging, yet also instructive. Let’s define our terms: • Momentum stocks are rising in price faster than the overall market. •...
John Dorfman: 6 cheap stocks with great 5-year returns
For years, my mentor, David Dreman, invested in Westinghouse Electric Co. The stock was cheap, often selling for about nine times the company’s per-share earnings. The stock price marched up nicely, yet the stock stayed cheap, because earnings were rising as fast as the stock price. That’s a value investor’s...
John Dorfman: Can analysts pick stocks? I doubt it
Can professional analysts pick stocks? Don’t laugh. Analysts perform many valuable functions. They ask probing questions of management, estimate earnings and provide a wealth of information on companies and industries. However, a study I’ve been conducting for a quarter of a century suggests they are no better at picking stocks...
John Dorfman: Robot Portfolio gained 22% in 2024
The Robot Portfolio returned more than 22% last year but was edged out by the surging Standard & Poor’s 500. Each year, the Robot — a naive stock-picking paradigm — generates a theoretical portfolio of 10 very unpopular stocks. The idea is that stocks advance by exceeding expectations, and low...
John Dorfman: Bosses are buying at these 4 companies
Chief executives probably know their companies better than anyone else. So when the boss is buying his company’s stock, it’s wise to pay attention. Here are four stocks I think deserve a look. In each case, the chief executive officer (CEO) has made a significant purchase in the past few...
John Dorfman: Pfizer, Schlumberger are January Bounce candidates
Stocks that struggle during the first 10 months of the year often fall further during November and December, as some investors sell to realize a tax loss. Once the tax-motivated selling subsides, such stocks frequently bounce back in January. Each year, I offer a few January bounce candidates — ones...
John Dorfman: Here’s another stock picking tool for your kit
Here’s a stock picking tool you might not have thought about. It’s called the PEG ratio. The PEG ratio is a ratio of two ratios. The numerator, or top line, is a stock’s price/earnings ratio, expressed simply as a number. This is the stock’s price divided by per-share earnings. If...
Citizens and Molson Coors look good based on book value
Stocks that are cheap relative to book value appeal to me a great deal. What’s book value? It’s basically a company’s net worth — its assets minus its liabilities. The figure is often expressed per share of common stock. General Motors Co. (GM), for example, has a book value of...
John Dorfman: These 5 stocks are hedge-fund faves
Many of this country’s most talented stock pickers choose to work at hedge funds, where salaries and bonuses often are more attractive than at bank trust departments or mutual funds. Gurufocus.com publishes a screen of stocks that are popular with leading hedge funds. For this column, I took that screen...
John Dorfman: Billion-dollar market value a sweet spot for stocks
I like companies with a market value around $1 billion. I think it’s a sweet spot — big enough to be “discovered” by institutional investors yet small enough to show dramatic growth. Each year around this time, I’ve written about a few companies in that size range, on the border...
John Dorfman: These 5 stocks make up Purloined Portfolio
Just because someone you respect owns a stock is no reason you should own it. On the other hand, you’d be a fool not to consider it. Once a year, I devote a column to stocks that show up in the course of my competition research. I collect a few...
John Dorfman: Occidental, Humana on Casualty List
“I can only buy on train wrecks,” famed money manager John Neff once said. Neff’s lament was that his fund (the Windsor Fund) had grown so large that he normally couldn’t buy a stock without pushing the price up. Accordingly, he felt that he could only buy on bad news....
John Dorfman: Dividends don’t (usually) lie
Geraldine Weiss, who died two years ago at age 96, was a successful investment newsletter writer at a time when few women were prominent in finance. She wrote a book called “Dividends Don’t Lie.” Weiss’ investment strategy was to invest in stocks with a dividend yield above that stock’s historical...
John Dorfman: What is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Really?
You probably hear about the Dow Jones Industrial Average every day, but how much do you really know about it? Q: What is the Dow Jones Industrial Average anyway? A: It’s a venerable U.S. stock-market index that Charles Dow invented in 1896. It comprises 30 stocks, which the selection committee...
John Dorfman: Trader in France scores 3rd victory in short-selling contest
Laurent Condon, a professional stock trader in France, has won my annual short-selling contest for a third time. Condon scored a 99.7% gain on his entry from a year ago, Mullen Automotive Inc., an electric car maker based in Brea, Calif. The stock descended from $45 a share when the...
John Dorfman: Chief executives buy at HighPeak Energy and MRC Global
Jack Hightower is a well-known guy in the oil business. His company, HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK), based in Fort Worth, Texas, is barely known by investors. In late August and early September, Hightower spent more than $2.8 million to increase his stake in HighPeak, a company he founded. That brings...
Harris, Trump and the future of corporate taxes
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will clash over corporate tax rates in the next two months. As President, Trump pushed for lower corporate tax rates and got them. In 2017, Congress slashed the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%. Corporate tax as we know it today was born in...
John Dorfman: Capital One, Tutor Perini look good on price-to-cash-flow
An old joke has a chief executive asking his accountant how much the company earned in the latest quarter. “How much did you want it to be?” the accountant replies. There’s always a bit of judgment that goes into financial figures. I’m a fan of GAAP earnings — profits measured...


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