Meteorologists say predicting this particular storm is tricky stuff

Preparing for a storm is tough, but predicting one is even harder. Just ask a meteorologist.

But WPXI-TV ’s chief meteorologist, Stephen Cropper, isn’t complaining. In fact, he loves the challenge of predicting the kind of severe weather we’re expected to have this weekend.

“We’re looking at the temperature, the wind, the moisture content, the track of the storm, the timing,” Cropper said. “And all of those variables are in flux even as the system is here.”

One of three things could happen: The storm could move toward the East Coast and miss Western Pennsylvania; it could go west into warmer air and bring mostly freezing rain and sleet; or it could go up the middle and hit the area hard.

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Cropper said the storm that — as of Friday evening — was expected to bring close to 10 inches of snow this weekend will begin creeping up the spine of the Appalachians on Saturday.

But, of course, things could change.

“Less likely is the warmer scenario, but it’s always an outlier. The coastal scenario is still somewhat in flux.

“But the middle of the alley appears to be the track that it is taking,” he said. “It’s literally a 50- to 100-mile shift that’s going to make a big difference in what people end up getting.”

Cropper said he won’t know for sure until sometime Saturday.

“Part of the complication is we’ve been tracking this all the way out to the Pacific Ocean. It’s only been in the last day that it’s on land so that we have observations that are ‘true,’ ” he said.

He said forecasting is tougher than people realize.

“People bust our chops all the time saying, ‘Your forecasts are inaccurate. You don’t know what you’re talking about.’

“But putting it into perspective, we’re trying to pin something down five days out and tell you how much you’re going to shovel in your driveway.”

Meteorologist Pat Herald, who works at the National Weather Service office in Moon Township, faces many of the same challenges.

“The problem we have with storms like this is when they go too far west,” he said. “What that does is pump warm air across the region and turns things to rain or freezing rain or sleet and degrades the snowfall totals. And then it becomes more of a mixed precip event and (therefore) much more difficult to discern the impact.

“There are a lot of things that could change,” Herald said. “That’s what makes weather hard.”