Experts: Here is what to expect as delta variant surges
A surge in coronavirus infections fueled by the delta variant has predictably caused global concern.
But that appears to be about the only predictable aspect of the delta variant, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reportedly indicating it’s as contagious as chickenpox.
Information is very fluid at this point with new details emerging from one day to the next.
The New York Times reported Friday on the volatile nature of the covid variants. “We’re not in nearly as much control as we think we are,” said Michael Osterholm, who runs a University of Minnesota infectious disease research center.
With that in mind, the Tribune-Review contacted three medical experts and asked them how the delta variant is changing the covid landscape.
Dr. Carol Fox
Fox is the chief medical officer for Excela Health System in Westmoreland County.
Question: Can you explain why the messaging about the delta variant keeps changing?
Answer: Viral morphology changes over time in order to survive, so it’s not unexpected that variants are appearing. More will follow. Guidance will change as information becomes available.
Q: What should the universal message to the public be?
A: Your best protection is prevention. Get vaccinated! And, because we now know that vaccinated individuals, while likely not seriously ill, can still transmit the virus, if you are not sure who you are around, including those who are immunocompromised, I would consider wearing a mask when indoors in crowds.
Q: How should schools/colleges handle the surge of this new variant as we approach fall?
A: Students should get vaccinated as soon as possible. It is the best way for us all to maintain normalcy.
Dr. Donald Whiting
Whiting is chief medical officer for Allegheny Health Network.
Question: Do you anticipate more breakthrough cases at this point?
Answer: I wouldn’t be surprised if we had more breakthrough cases. That’s why we want to get everybody vaccinated. But as the virus evolves, things will continue to evolve. It’s very unpredictable this whole virus. It’s still evolving. We’re getting new information every day. But the difference between being vaccinated and not vaccinated is the virus symptoms are less severe.
Q: Should the public brace for widespread mask mandates?
A: If the cases continue to rise — that is the main mitigating factor for spread of the disease — yes, depending on how the cases evolve, that would certainly be something to expect.
Q: Are booster shots coming soon for certain populations?
A: I think we’ll know more in the next month or so. I think the main question is: How do you gauge benefits? Will booster shots elevate that in people who didn’t get the response from the first vaccination, like immunosuppressed people? That’s another question that needs to be answered. And then the other question is, what is the longevity of the initial injection and at what point would people need booster shots? That’s all being sorted out. But I think booster shots likely will be in the future for at least certain populations. It’s not recommended to do that yet, but more data is coming out, probably over the next month.
Q: Do you think children (6 to 12) are soon going to be eligible for the vaccines?
A: Based on the progress of the studies, they will by the end of 2021 and maybe sooner.
Dr. Amesh Adalja
Adalja is a Pittsburgh-based infectious disease expert and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Question: Why is the delta variant more contagious?
Answer: The delta variant is more contagious because it has certain mutations that enable it to bind more efficiently to our cells, which results in shedding of higher virus amounts and also likely a shorter incubation period, which translates into more transmissibility.
Q: Is this a preview of what’s to come down the road?
A: There are always going to be variants that are generated. Many of them may be innocuous, but certain ones may have an ability to transmit more efficiently. So, we may see more transmissible variants arise. Delta is more transmissible than alpha.
Q: Do you think booster shots are going to be necessary?
A: To me, the threshold for needing a booster vaccination would be to see fully vaccinated individuals contract breakthrough infections that land them in the hospital. That’s not happening. The people that are in the hospital now are almost universally not vaccinated. So, I don’t think that threshold has been crossed. It’s important to study boosters and have an accelerated pathway for FDA approval of them, but we’re not at the point where I would say a booster is necessary in the short run for the general healthy public.
Q: Is your opinion changing at all due to the unpredictable nature of the delta variant?
A: I think the delta variant is going to find unvaccinated people, and it’s going to burn through them. And then you’ll start to see cases fall. But (the delta variant) will cause a lot of damage in places like Missouri for example.
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