One month ago, Democrats were in disarray and the Democratic National Convention loomed large as a make-or-break moment for the party.

It seemed Democrats were speeding toward a cliff as President Joe Biden grew increasingly unpopular. A disastrous debate performance in June punctuated the turmoil.

This year’s convention in Chicago, which kicks off Monday, was shaping up to feel more like a funeral than a party — something Democrats were obligated to attend but no one really wanted to, said Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor.

If Biden remained as the party’s nominee, the convention likely would have gone poorly, Borick said, and things could have spiraled from there, with delegates potentially protesting his nomination and possibly sinking the party’s chance of holding the White House.

Then everything shifted.

When Biden dropped out four weeks ago and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to run in his place, momentum started to build for Democrats.

Harris saw a near-instant boost in polling. Hope bloomed for partisans who had resigned themselves to a Biden candidacy. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, were certified as official Democratic nominees Aug. 6 with almost no pushback during a virtual roll call.

Several battleground states, including Pennsylvania, now show Harris leading former President Donald Trump compared with Biden’s consistently poor numbers when stacked up against those of the Republican nominee.

180-degree turn

With the convention unexpectedly reenergized, the four-day event should allow liberals to capitalize on their surge, highlight and detail their policy platform, and showcase their future in a way that could rally voters, Borick said.

In other words, Borick said, the mood surrounding the convention has done a complete 180.

While many of the party’s traditional planks are not likely to cause internal friction — protecting abortion rights, acting on climate change, driving down health care costs — not everything is rainbows and donkeys.

The rift in the party over the Israel-Hamas war is likely to show up outside the convention on Chicago’s west side, where large protests are expected. Many pro-­Palestinian members of the party’s progressive wing have called for a cease-fire in Gaza, an end to hostilities by the Israeli military and a cessation of U.S. arms to the Middle East ally.

It remains to be seen how the schism manifests itself on the convention floor and whether party activists try to pressure Harris into making commitments about how she would handle the conflict.

The Democrats’ circumstances are similar to the Republican National Convention held last month. A failed assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 helped to unify the GOP before their convention, where some delegates sported bandages over their ears in solidarity with Trump, who was shot in the ear.

Everything seems to be going in the Democrats’ favor, Borick said. Now, he added, they have to capitalize on it.

“The shift for Dems with Biden stepping aside has created a similar energy,” Borick said. “I expect the energy and momentum that Harris has seen in the last two weeks to roll into Chicago.”

‘There is just joy’

TribLive spoke to five delegates from Southwestern Pennsylvania. All expect the convention to propel Harris higher in the polls and solidify excitement behind her.

Michelle McFall of Murrysville, chair of the West­more­land County Democratic Committee, said the race completely transformed over the past four weeks.

She acknowledged Democrats have a history of infighting but noted that, when Biden dropped out, the party swiftly united around Harris.

“Everyone is going in the same direction. It feels on the inside like it looks on the outside,” said McFall, 55. “I have never experienced anything like this.”

Nat Yap, 50, is a delegate from Pittsburgh’s Shadyside neighborhood and has been a longtime Democratic campaign volunteer.

He supported Biden but said the president was having a tough time breaking through with voters in Allegheny County.

Yap spends many weekends canvassing voters. He said before Harris became the nominee, connecting with them was difficult. They lacked enthusiasm, he said, and independents were reluctant to say anything positive about Biden.

But Yap’s experience has been night and day since.

“They are excited, they are giving money, they are signing up to volunteer, and these are not serial volunteers; they are new to the fray,” Yap said. “It is hard not to be excited (by) what you have seen over the last week.”

State Rep. Arvind Venkat, D-McCandless, was canvassing in his North Hills district when news broke that Biden was stepping down. He said the shift was instantaneous among voters.

“People I spoke to were worried before about Biden, and then the news hit, and voters became excited,” said Venkat, who is also a convention delegate. “We are seeing that energy.”

Until recently, coverage of the campaigns focused on the fitness and personalities of Biden and Trump. Now the race is centering on how Harris or Trump will impact the country’s future.

Venkat believes the convention can only boost Harris’ platform of protecting abortion access, raising wages and expanding affordable health care.

“It is no longer a referendum on personalities. It is a contrast on visions,” he said.

Chicago will mark the first convention for delegate Morgan Overton, 30. The Penn Hills native lives in Greenfield and serves as the vice chair for the Allegheny County Democratic Committee.

She worked on former President Barack Obama’s campaign in 2012 and said she is seeing similar enthusiasm for Harris among young voters.

“They are thinking about consequences for the next generation,” Overton said. “There is just joy.”

Recent polling reflects that shift and shows a jump in enthusiasm.

In June, 48% of national voters were enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden matchup, according to polling from Monmouth University in New Jersey.

This month, that figure has jumped to 68% for a Trump-Harris matchup.

Monmouth polling shows 85% of Democrats are enthusiastic to vote, compared with 46% in June. Enthusiasm among independents jumped from 34% to 53% from June to August. Republican enthusiasm remained flat across the same time period, at 71%.

Pittsburgh in Chicago

The convention will take over Chicago from Monday through Thursday. It will be held at the United Center, home to the NBA’s Chicago Bulls and the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks, and McCormick Place in Chicago’s Chinatown.

More than 50,000 people are expected to attend, including over 5,000 delegates. More than fifteen will hail from Allegheny, Beaver and Westmoreland counties. The Republican National Convention last month in Milwaukee attracted about the same number.

Total costs to host the DNC are projected to reach about $155 million.

Officials expect about $150 million to $200 million in positive economic impact, according to a Chicago tourism group.

Expected speakers include Harris and Walz but also Chicago resident and former president Barack Obama. Biden will kick off the convention with a speech Monday. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttegieg, an Indiana native, also is expected to take the stage.

Chicago’s location will be a big theme of the convention. The Midwest is important to Democrats’ chances of retaining control of the executive branch, particularly by holding the swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan, said Kristen Coopie, a Duquesne University professor who studies campaigns and elections.

Though the convention will be hundreds of miles from Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh will be on delegates’ minds. On Sunday, Harris and Walz are rallying in the Pittsburgh area.

The delegates who spoke to TribLive were excited about visiting Chicago and expressed confidence that Pittsburgh would be mentioned often during the convention, thanks to its important voting bloc in Pennsylvania, a vital swing state.

In July, Republican delegates were mixed on Milwaukee. Trump had to walk back negative statements he made about Wisconsin’s largest city, which has a Democratic mayor. Local delegates understood Wisconsin’s importance in the election but were less excited about visiting Milwaukee than Democrats are about Chicago, which has been controlled without interruption by Democrats since 1931.

Overton said Chicago makes sense to rally Democrats, particularly the party’s Black base, because Chicago is home to prominent Black political figures including Obama and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

She is taking her mom to the convention and said Pittsburghers will show up in force to make sure the region is not forgotten in the political discourse.

“Hello, we are the city of champions. We are just gonna keep on winning,” she said.

Venkat, who is Indian-American, said Pittsburgh’s suburbs are important to Democrats’ chances of winning in Pennsylvania, and he is looking forward to highlighting that in a panel discussion with Asian-American lawmakers during the convention.

He said his family is from the same part of India that Harris’ mother is from, and the convention will give people more opportunity to learn about Harris’ Indian roots.

Venkat said that could make a difference in inspiring some voters. Pittsburgh is home to more than 20,000 people of Indian descent.

“You look in my district and the suburbs, there are huge pockets of Asian Americans, (and) they are turning out. Their energy will be the difference,” Venkat said.

Protests planned

An estimated 30,000 protesters are expected. They will represent a coalition of organizations advocating for reproductive rights, environmental issues and, most notably, ending the Israel-Hamas war.

The convention is preparing to accommodate them with protest zones, and a march route has been established, though protesters are not pleased with its location.

The Palestinian death toll in Gaza — estimated by the territory’s Health Ministry at more than 40,000 — has become a major wedge issue within the Democratic Party, splintering the group between support for Israel and sympathy for the victims.

McFall expects protests to be large and frequent, but she said that is part of what makes America a strong democracy.

She said the Gaza protest movement was increasingly becoming a harder issue to manage within the Democratic Party.

U.S. Rep. Summer Lee, D-Swissvale, has been one of the stronger pro-Palestinian voices in Congress. She has walked a fine line in her district, strongly advocating for Pittsburgh’s Jewish community in the aftermath of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018 but drawing criticism for her stance on the war in Gaza.

She said Democrats at the convention need to lead with compassion on the Gaza issue, not be dismissive, and listen sincerely to the protesters’ message.

“It’s to show that we can empathize with people who are going through an unspeakable catastrophe,” Lee said. “It’s most important to acknowledge that pain. We do that by listening.”

McFall believes Harris is well poised to do that. She noted how Harris adjusted her recent responses to Gaza protesters who interrupted her rallies.

At a Detroit rally this month, Harris responded to a protester and said, “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”

McFall said Harris pulled the “mom card.” While that was effective, McFall said, she called attention to how Harris moderated her message the next day when confronted by another protester.

During a rally in Arizona, Harris reiterated her calls for a cease-fire and said she respects protesters’ voices.

“She is managing a geopolitical issue well,” McFall said.

Borick, the Muhlenberg professor, also expects some level of protests this week but said they shouldn’t have the same impact as those during the infamous 1968 Democratic National Convention, also in Chicago, where demonstrations devolved into riots.

That year had some similar circumstances with incumbent President Lyndon Johnson bowing out of the race and his vice president Hubert Humphrey eventually winning the nomination (though through a brokered convention, unlike Harris, who secured her delegates before the convention).

The 1968 protests were against America’s involvement in the Vietnam War. They were met with police brutality, furthering fracturing the Democratic Party at the time.

Borick said he doesn’t expect the same internal division at this year’s convention.

“There might have been some signs of strain within the party internally, but I don’t think we will see it much of on the convention floor,” he said. “I don’t expect protests to really be part of the scene.”

Passing the torch

Coopie, the Duquesne professor, said that, although circumstances around this convention have been unique, the drama has largely calmed down.

The party has united around Harris, and the convention speeches will highlight rising Democratic stars as well as former presidents like Obama and Bill Clinton.

Coopie expects liberal celebrities to make appearances, all with the goal of showing unity.

“There is a lot of stagecraft. They are very heavily managed,” she said.

One thing that will be closely watched is Biden’s speech, scheduled for Monday, Coopie said.

“What will set the tone for the convention is Joe Biden on Monday night,” she said.

Biden’s speech will underscore the party’s passing the torch from the 81-year-old president to the next generation of Democratic leaders, Coopie said.

Bibiana Boerio, 70, is a delegate from Unity in Westmoreland County. She previously served as chief of staff to former Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.

Boerio, a staunch Biden supporter, said she understands why he needed to step aside. His withdrawal has galvanized the party, she said.

“I am looking forward to a positive message about moving forward,” Boerio said.

Making their pitch

Harris and Walz have an opportunity to keep their momentum going, but that feat also comes with pressure, Borick said.

Their campaign is only weeks old, so the convention is a critical opportunity for a national audience to hear their pitch.

Borick said Walz and Harris need to nail their speeches. He noted that Republicans had momentum heading into their convention as well, but a lackluster speech by U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and a meandering one from Trump was somewhat deflating.

“The speeches will be the most important,” Borick said. “The candidates are in a positive position, but will they respond to the spotlight?”

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