Thanksgiving turkeys say no to inflation, but everything else up

National headlines predict doom and gloom at the Thanksgiving dinner table this year.

“Inflation is so bad you may be better off dining at a restaurant for Thanksgiving this year,” Fortune magazine prognosticated, while the Eating Well website proclaimed, “Your Thanksgiving Turkey Might Be Twice as Expensive This Year.”

Wells Fargo forecast turkey prices to be 23% higher than last year in the fourth quarter.

But they don’t shop in Southwestern Pennsylvania.

“It’s turkey hysteria,” said Zack Oravitz, 27, of Fawn on Friday, while shopping at Aldi’s in the Pittsburgh Mills shopping complex in Frazer.

He already bought his 18-pound turkey for $1.05 a pound, not the higher prices predicted by some in the last month.

“Everything price-wise is out of freaking control, but not turkey,” Oravitz said.

While it’s true inflation continues to take a big bite out of household food budgets, local Thanksgiving cooks can expect a reprieve on turkeys as many stores are offering whole frozen birds at 99 cents a pound.

According to the most recent National USDA Retail Report, frozen turkeys range from 37 cents to $2.29 a pound in the Northeastern United States. The average price for a frozen hen turkey is 97 cents nationally, for the week ended Nov. 10.

But inflation will have a seat at the table. Staples such as butter continue to burn holes in pocketbooks.

Southwestern Pennsylvania residents will be spared paying the record breaking national retail average of $1.70 per pound for turkey reported earlier in the season because the region’s two largest supermarket chains, Giant Eagle and Shop ’n Save, along with other stores, are offering promotional pricing for holiday birds.

Giant Eagle offers promotional pricing for its frozen turkeys. Birds 17 pounds and greater will be 99 cents a pound with a Giant Eagle Advantage Card. Lighter turkeys will be $1.09 per pound.

The wholesale costs to buy turkeys have increased dramatically this year by more than 16%, said Tom Charley of Charley Family Shop ’n Save with two stores in Greensburg and one in Murrysville.

“However, we decided to keep the price down,” he said.

Charley admitted, “We are losing a lot of money on turkeys this year.

“We understand that is a centerpiece item for a lot of people and they are struggling with inflation,” Charley said. “It’s been a brutal process.”

Turkeys have been more expensive to bring to market.

At Pounds Turkey Farm in Allegheny Township, the price for fresh whole turkeys increased 70 cents this year to $4.29 per pound because the costs of raising, buying, and packing the birds were higher, said Bev Pounds.

“There seems to be high demand,” Pounds said. “People might choose a smaller turkey because of prices, but we’re not tracking that.”

Pounds suspended orders for turkeys this week as they are close to selling out. This year they will dress 4,000 turkeys, she said.

Pounds also stopped taking orders this week on turkey breasts, which go for $6.99 a pound.

While Pounds is a specialty business with a loyal customer base preferring fresh turkeys, the scene is different at the chain groceries, especially as the holiday gets closer.

“Some retailers are beginning to offer competitively priced whole turkeys as a way to get consumers into their stores,” said an official with the U.S. Department of Agriculture this week.

Last year, the average price per pound of whole frozen turkeys declined 18% between the first and second weeks of November from $1.07 to 88 cents a pound, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

In addition to the promotional priced turkeys at Giant Eagle, the grocer offers deals on other Thanksgiving items, said Dick Roberts, spokesman for Giant Eagle.

Two cans of Ocean Spray cranberry sauce go for $4, and two pounds of yams are discounted at $1 when customers participate in the MyPerks program.

“Giant Eagle recognizes that the centerpiece of the holiday is the Thanksgiving turkey and providing delicious products at the lowest prices is more important than ever,” Roberts said. “We’ve been working with supply partners for months to help ensure a strong supply for all the holiday mealtime essentials at the right price.”

At all Shop ’n Save stores, whole tom turkeys go for 99 cents a pound when customers spend $25 at the store.

The supermarket chain has been aggressively pricing turkeys for years in the run-up before Thanksgiving, said Charley.

There are no issues with supply, contrary to national reports of the impact of the Avian flu, he said. “We are going full bore. We have been getting every turkey we ordered.”

“The pricing is up and inflation is up,” he said. “The cost to us is up, but we wanted to be aggressive,” Charley said.

“At the end of the day, we still have a turkey under $1 a pound so you can still get a 20-pound turkey for 20 bucks,” he said.

To pass on the spirit of Thanksgiving, all three Charley Shop ’n Save stores will put out 500 holiday dinner items outside stores for customers in need on Thanksgiving when the store is closed.

“If you forgot butter, grab it and donate to a local charity,” Charley said. The store will post QR codes for nonprofits next to products for customers to donate and pay it forward.