Dave McCormick defeats Bob Casey in Pa. Senate race

Republican businessman David McCormick has won an upset in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race against Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, The Associated Press reported Thursday, but Casey has not conceded.

“Thank you, Pennsylvania! Looking forward to representing every citizen of our great Commonwealth,” McCormick posted on X two hours later.

McCormick, 59, of Pittsburgh prevailed in his second run for Senate and will hold his first elected office. He served as CEO for a hedge fund for years before entering the political fray in 2022, coming up short in the Republican primary for Senate. Last year, he declared a new campaign against Casey.

The AP declared McCormick the winner at 4:09 p.m. Thursday, while ballots were still outstanding.

But Casey, a scion of Pennsylvania politics, remained defiant and refused to concede because votes are still being tallied.

“I have dedicated my life to making sure Pennsylvanians’ voices are heard, whether on the floor of the Senate or in a free and fair election,” Casey posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday evening.

“It has been made clear there are more than 100,000 votes still to be counted. Pennsylvania is where our democratic process was born. We must allow that process to play out and ensure that every vote that is eligible to be counted will be counted. That is what Pennsylvania deserves.”

The loss, if it holds after all ballots are counted, would mark the first statewide general election defeat for Casey, a three-term incumbent.

Polling had favored Casey to win. He has held public office in Pennsylvania since 1997.

McCormick leads 48.9% to Casey’s 48.5%. If the margin finishes within 0.5%, an automatic recount will be triggered under Pennsylvania law for statewide contests.

Hours before the AP called the race, McCormick’s campaign released a statement projecting confidence, saying, “While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United State Senator from Pennsylvania.”

With over 97% of the estimated votes in as of Thursday, McCormick had a lead of about 32,000 votes over Casey.

There are still some in-person precincts to be counted across the state, but they are largely in Republican-rich Cambria County, which the McCormick campaign referred to as “ruby red.”

Overseas, military, and provisional ballots also still need to be counted.

Pennsylvania Department of State Secretary Al Schmidt said there were at least 100,000 ballots remaining to be adjudicated, including provisional, military, overseas, and Election Day votes.

Schmidt pushed back against a notion that any close races can be called.

“We urge patience as election workers continue to do this important work, especially in contests where the margins are very close,” Schmidt said.

No concession

Casey allies are calling for every vote to be counted before a winner is declared.

Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, of Braddock, criticized the AP for making the call before all the votes were tallied.

“We still have tens of thousands of votes to be counted across the Commonwealth,” he posted Thursday evening on X.

J.J. Abbott, director of Democratic-aligned Commonwealth Communications, said there should not be pressure for media organizations to call the race and that the final vote total should determine the winner.

Abbott noted that when McCormick lost a close race in the Republican Senate primary in 2022, he dragged it out by going to court to fight for more ballots to be counted. In the end, his challenger, television personality Mehmet Oz, was declared the winner before losing to Fetterman.

“Everyone should respect the process and let the remaining tens of thousands of provisional, mail-in, and Election Day votes be counted,” Abbott said. “McCormick’s campaign seems to be trying to trick the press to only focus on one county, Cambria, when there are tens of thousands of remaining ballots in heavily Democratic counties that could break significantly for Sen. Casey.

“Pennsylvania voters will decide,” Abbott continued. “Everyone, including Dave McCormick, can wait for all the votes to be counted.”

‘Landmark victory’

The upset boosts Republicans’ hold on the Senate, giving them 53 of the 100 seats in the chamber.

Senate races in Nevada, Arizona, and Maine have not been called.

McCormick, a Washington County native who was raised in Bloomsburg, Columbia County, sought throughout his campaign to paint Casey as a career politician who was out of touch with everyday Pennsylvanians. He touted his experience in the Army and running large companies.

Allegheny County Councilman at-Large Sam DeMarco serves as chair for the county Republican Party and worked on McCormick’s campaign.

He said he was thrilled with the upset win and noted the close nature of the race that took two days to call.

“While we never doubted the outcome of Tuesday’s vote, it is good that we have consensus for David McCormick’s landmark victory, and we look forward to uniting around his leading in the U.S. Senate,” he said.

DeMarco credited McCormick with highlighting his leadership ability throughout the campaign. He also praised McCormick for positioning himself as a change agent during an election when voters were calling for a shift in power.

“This was a change election; people were not happy with the status quo,” DeMarco said. “It certainly didn’t help Casey that 99% of his votes were with President Joe Biden.”

Underperforming Trump

Casey, 64, of Scranton is the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr. He was first elected to the Senate in 2007 after serving as the state’s treasurer and auditor general.

He has a close friendship and professional relationship with Biden, who was also born and raised in Scranton.

While some other Democrats across the country outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket and won Senate races in states where Harris lost, Casey merely matched Harris’s performance in Pennsylvania.

For his part, McCormick underperformed President-elect Donald Trump by about 1.5 percentage points.

DeMarco chalked that up to Trump being a unique and transcendent political figure. He also attributed McCormick’s lesser showing partly to ancestral Democrats who split their tickets and had lingering loyalty to Casey.