Officials: Breakthrough covid cases increase, but vaccinations remain effective against severe illness, death

State health officials on Friday released new data that sheds some light on the frequency of covid-19 breakthrough cases as well as the related rates of hospitalization and death, though a lack of demographic data means some key questions about such cases remain unanswered.

Over the past month, 135,098 people across the state tested positive for the virus, and about 74% of them were unvaccinated. In the same time period, 4,898 people were hospitalized with the virus, 74% of whom were unvaccinated.

Officials did not have covid-related death data to go along with that time frame, Acting Physician General Dr. Denise Johnson said, because that data can lag behind by up to two months.

Johnson and other health officials pointed to the numbers as further proof that vaccines are effective.

“If you are playing the lottery and there is something you could do to triple your odds of hitting the jackpot, would you do it?” she said.

From the beginning of the year through Oct. 4, 7,625 covid-related deaths have been reported in the state. About 518 of them – or around 7% — were vaccinated individuals.

“The vaccines are still working,” Johnson said. “We really don’t want people to be dissuaded from getting that primary series of vaccinations because they think it’s not working. It really makes a difference.”

She compared the vaccines to seat belts.

“As the number of people wearing seat belts increased, the number of car accidents involving people wearing seat belts went up,” she said. “However, the overall fatality rate from car accidents dropped. Your chances of dying in a car accident drop dramatically if you wear a seat belt. So too, your chances of dying from covid-19 drop substantially if you are fully vaccinated.”

Of the 44,095 hospitalizations across the state from the start of the year through Oct. 4 in which covid was the primary diagnosis, 93% involved people who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated or did not disclose their vaccination status.

In regard to cases in general, 91% reported through Oct. 4 involved unvaccinated people, officials said. Of the 771,734 cases — about 9%, or 69,822 — were breakthrough cases.

Myriad factors can play into breakthrough cases – like age, underlying conditions and waning immunity – though just how big of a role they play remains to be seen as officials work to gather more details to go along with the aggregate data.

“We don’t have a really good way of telling what portion is attributable to what factor,” Johnson said, though she noted that as vaccinations increase, so too will the number of breakthrough cases.

As of Friday, about 69.4% of Pennsylvania adults were fully vaccinated. The average number of hospitalized patients was rising, officials said, and the percent positivity for the last week of September was 9.1%.