New Pa. poll shows would-be presidential race between Biden, Trump a statistical dead heat

A new poll of Pennsylvania voters shows that a would-be presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump is a statistical dead heat.

Muhlenberg College in Allentown released a statewide poll this week that showed 42% of Pennsylvania voters say they prefer Biden in 2024, compared to 41% for Trump. The poll’s margin of error is 6%.

Christopher Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg, said the poll is in line with other statewide polls that forecast an incredibly close general election next year.

“The race is close to even when you put all the data points together,” he said. “It’s a very tight battle.”

Borick said the poll shows that both candidates are suffering from high negative ratings.

About 57% of state voters disapprove of Biden’s job as president, while 34% approve. And 65% say Biden doesn’t deserve a second term.

Trump is weighed down by his perceived temperament, Borick said.

Trump’s favorability rating is about equal to Biden’s, with just 33% of voters finding him favorable, and 68% of voters say Trump doesn’t have the right temperament to be president.

“Voters think Biden hasn’t earned a second term and is too old to run. He has a lot of negatives,” said Borick. “But Trump has his own negatives, really high negatives, and they are equally high negatives compared to Biden.”

Borick said the poll shows voters would prefer different candidates for president from both parties, but all indications show that Biden and Trump are the front-runners nationally.

“People are not in a happy position right now,” he said. “Pennsylvania voters are seeing the direction of the country more negatively, and Pennsylvanians usually align pretty equally with the national mood.”

The Muhlenberg poll surveyed 421 registered Pennsylvania voters via telephone between Nov. 20 and Dec. 13.

The high negatives of Biden and Trump are in contrast to Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has a strong approval rating, according to the poll.

About 51% of voters approve of Shapiro’s job as governor, while just 21% disapprove.

Shapiro’s name has been brought up by some as a potential presidential candidate beyond the 2024 election. The Muhlenberg poll asked voters who they preferred in a hypothetical presidential matchup between Trump and Shapiro, and voters gave Shapiro an 11-point advantage, 48% to 37%.

Borick said Shapiro’s approval ratings are impressive given the high level of political partisanship and polarization.

Another finding in the poll showed a majority of voters, 52%, support establishing the right to an abortion in the state constitution, while 41% oppose.

Borick also noted that a large majority of Pennsylvanians want to maintain abortion rights as is or expand them.

“To erode those rights in Pennsylvania would be a challenge to any politician,” Borick said.