Probability of asteroid striking Earth highest ever recorded
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The probability of an asteroid striking Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, has risen to the highest level ever recorded — 3.1%, the New York Times reported.
Known as 2024 YR4, the space rock was first detected in December, and it’s between 130 to 300 feet long, according to the Times. It’s expected to make a very close pass of the planet in 2032.
Though the danger remains low, astronomers said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 has become the most likely sizable asteroid ever forecast to impact Earth.
The odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth have increased from the 1.3% that was reported at the end of January.
Damage could be done, experts said, as the space rock’s threat has surpassed that of Apophis, an asteroid feared by scientists 20 years ago, according to the Times. Astronomers initially calculated its chances of impacting Earth in 2029 at 2.7%, which was later decreased to zero.
However, 2024 YR4 is far smaller than Apophis, experts said.
Possible impact
Despite its small size for an asteroid, 2024 YR4 could cause devastation — depending on where it would hypothetically enter Earth’s atmosphere, the Times said.
Experts said it wouldn’t decimate a whole country, but it could scar or demolish a city with a direct hit.
“We don’t know how dense or porous it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy it would release if it strikes Earth’s surface or explodes in the atmosphere, is uncertain,” said Mark Boslough, a physicist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, to the Times.
But experts are running out of time to predict the asteroid’s risk. One roadblock is that 2024 YR4 will fly behind the sun in April, placing it out of the view of most Earth-based telescopes, according to New Scientist. That will updated predictions from astronomers.
The asteroid should come back into view in 2028.
As of now, the Times said much of the object’s estimated track passes over empty ocean, but some possible impact locations are close to cities like Bogotá, Lagos and Mumbai.
If 2024 YR4 turns out to be on the high end of the estimated length at 300 feet, its impact “could cause more severe damage,” according to Michael Aftosmis, an expert at the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project, the Times reported.
Should this larger version of 2024 YR4 hit solid ground, it could carve out a crater perhaps two-thirds of a mile across, according to the Times.
“The asteroid would create an enormous explosion,” Boslough said. Multistory buildings around the crater would buckle and crumple, bridges would fold over, and cars, trees and people would be thrown in all directions. Boslough also noted the potential for a “hot jet of asteroid vapor that would descend to the surface and incinerate everything.”