Athan Koutsiouroumbas: Black men poised to shake up Pa. political landscape

Thanks in part to Black men, Pennsylvania’s political tectonics are shifting in ways that were unimaginable just a short time ago. In the 2024 presidential election, 24% of Pennsylvania’s Black men voted for President Trump.

Given that 14% of Pennsylvania’s Black men voted for Trump in 2016, adding 10 points of growth directly from the Democratic Party’s base vote qualifies as serious seismic activity.

Since the presidential election, these demographic tremors appear to be growing stronger.

A national poll revealed this month that 42% of Black men approve of Trump’s job performance while 4 in 10 have a favorable opinion of him. Polling results like these appearing in future Pennsylvania election results would be nothing short of a political earthquake.

Black men comprised 3% of the total Pennsylvania vote in 2024. As the number of votes cast in Pennsylvania was just under 7 million, nearly 210,000 Black men voted in 2024. With Trump’s support nationally from Black men doubling since Election Day, that could place an additional 50,000 votes into Trump’s Pennsylvania tally. Considering Trump won Pennsylvania by 120,000 votes, the current growth trend with Black men alone could increase his margin of victory by 40%.

Driving these trends is Trump’s job approval. The overwhelming majority of Americans describe Trump as focused, energetic and tough while the number of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track has plummeted by 14% since he took office. With 70% of Americans agreeing that Trump is delivering on his campaign promises, he’s never been more popular.

Those promises include issues like DEI, transparency, immigration and trade. As Montgomery County Democratic Commissioners expand DEI efforts here in Pennsylvania, nearly two-thirds of Americans believe government should hire based on merit and experience instead of racial and gender identity, including 55% of Hispanics and even 41% of Democrats.

Trump’s widely popular policies cut cross traditional party lines and are anchored in working class values. As a result, Republican party leaders should be bullish on their future electoral fortunes. Pennsylvania’s voter registration is trending heavily Republican. Furthermore, Republicans are quickly reaching early voting parity with Democrats.

For down-ballot Republicans, seizing upon the Trump-led momentum is difficult but achievable. They must focus on three things.

First, a strong policy agenda to deliver for working-class voters is essential.

All policy roads for Pennsylvania’s working class lead toward energy production. As a net energy exporter, Pennsylvania must solidify its position as an industrial and data powerhouse by keeping energy production aligned with anticipated exponential energy demand growth.

Second, Pennsylvania Republicans must refine their turnout strategy to maximize support from the Trump coalition. Both Trump and President Obama proved incapable of delivering their coalitions for midterm election success.

Replicating the successful Democratic Party model, Trump outsourced the traditional Republican National Committee get-out-the-vote efforts to independent entities like Early Vote Action and Turning Point. A Pennsylvania-based model should be created moving forward.

The key to sustaining enthusiasm across all election cycles is keeping these new voters engaged and informed through a Pennsylvania-specific new media presence. Pennsylvania Republicans must invest in creating their own influencers across all social media platforms.

Finally, Pennsylvania Republicans must build on Trump’s historic gains with Black men. Opening GOP-branded offices in majority Black communities is unlikely the answer as it has proven unsustainable, which only leads toward mistrust when offices shutter. They should focus on Black outreach in places where the local party is organized and strong while delivering on working-class priorities.

Pennsylvania’s political landscape is shifting under a realignment that will redefine the state’s politics for years to come.

The Republican path is clear. The challenge is execution.

Athan Koutsiouroumbas is a managing director at Long Nyquist and Associates and a former congressional chief of staff.