Analysis: Countdown on for Paul Skenes to check boxes, receive promotion to Pirates

As soon as the Baltimore Orioles promoted Jackson Holliday, the 2022 No. 1 overall pick and baseball’s consensus top prospect, it prompted speculation about when the Pittsburgh Pirates would do the same with top pitching prospect Paul Skenes.

The answer is simple: Not yet.

The 6-foot-6, 250-pound right-hander, the No. 1 overall pick last July and the No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline, shined in the Spring Breakout showcase by striking out Holliday with a knee-buckling changeup. Skenes flashed a fastball that topped triple digits on six of his first seven pitches and threw strikes on eight of 11 in a perfect first inning against the Orioles’ top prospects.

Paul Skenes striking out Jackson Holliday pic.twitter.com/9ALR3UgLus

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) March 14, 2024

That performance had Pittsburgh buzzing about the 21-year-old Skenes being major-league ready, even though he’d only thrown 6 2/3 innings across three levels in the minors last season and three innings in two Grapefruit League games. The Pirates had other plans, as general manager Ben Cherington broke the news to Skenes on March 5 that he wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster. Cherington later explained during a SportsNet Pittsburgh game broadcast why the Pirates wanted a longer look at Skenes in the minors.

“Some of this is just that we really want to do everything we can to put Paul in the position to help the Pirates as much as possible for as long as possible,” Cherington said, “and some of that in his first professional season in making sure that he’s got an opportunity to check some boxes that he hasn’t quite had the opportunity to do.”

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• Charged battery: No. 1 overall picks Henry Davis, Paul Skenes in spring training spotlight

After making one start in the Florida Complex League, two at Low-A Bradenton and two at Double-A Altoona, the Pirates wanted Skenes to pitch at Triple-A. After throwing 122 2/3 innings while serving as the Friday night starter for LSU on its run to the College World Series championship, the Pirates wanted Skenes to adjust to pitching every five days and develop a routine between starts. And they want to build up his volume, gradually increasing his pitch count past the 46 of his first start and his innings pitched past the three of his second start.

“As he checks those boxes,” Cherington said, “mostly he’s going to tell us.”

What Skenes has told the Pirates so far is that he has yet to be challenged. He has 11 strikeouts against one walk, holding opponents to an .053 batting average in six innings over two starts. But Skenes also hasn’t faced a batting order a second time, let alone a third. And, after relying primarily on his fastball and slider at LSU, Skenes is getting a feel for using his hybrid splitter-sinker, changeup and curveball.

Paul Skenes through 2 starts this year:

6 IP
1 H
0 R
1 BB
11 K

MLB's top pitching prospect has been pure ???? with the @indyindians (Triple-A affiliate of the @Pirates).

Story: https://t.co/eWg5ozhMkc pic.twitter.com/25hUer121l

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 6, 2024

Where Holliday had his contract selected in time to be eligible to accrue the 172 days required for a full year of service time and for the Prospect Promotion Incentive that would reward the Orioles with a bonus draft pick if he were to win the AL Rookie of the Year, Skenes is scheduled to make his third start Friday at Toledo.

Given the record $9.2 million signing bonus the Pirates invested in Skenes and hefty price tag to acquire starting pitching, it makes sense to manipulate his service time to ensure a seventh year of club control.

Related

• 'We should be excited': Sizzling debuts by Paul Skenes, Jared Jones look promising for Pirates
• Pirates GM Ben Cherington addresses decision to reassign Paul Skenes
• Pirates tell top pitching prospect Paul Skenes he won't make Opening Day roster

Baseball analysts expect Skenes to pitch in the majors before Memorial Day. During SportsNet Pittsburgh’s Spring Breakout broadcast, MLB Pipeline analyst Jonathan Mayo predicted that baseball fans will “see him soon” in the majors.

“When you look at Paul Skenes, the first thing (you notice) — other than the velocity, which is absurd — is the ease with which he does it. There’s not effort there,” Mayo said. “He’s not just a guy who throws 102, which he did repeatedly, but he knows where to put it. He commands the fastball. He has a full array of secondary pitches. … His stuff is ready to get big-league hitters out, I have no doubt about it.”

hi hello Paul Skenes pic.twitter.com/DxabZJ5JDD

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 5, 2024

That’s not the only motivation the Pirates have in bringing Skenes along slowly. As a power pitcher, he’s been compared to Stephen Strasburg, another former college pitcher who went No. 1 overall in 2009.

Strasburg serves as a cautionary tale. He threw 55 1/3 innings in 11 starts split between Double A and Triple A in the minors, then went 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 68 innings over 12 starts for the Washington Nationals in his first full professional season in 2010. Strasburg suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, which required Tommy John surgery.

With the Pirates entering a window to become contenders, losing the 21-year-old Skenes to an arm injury would be devastating. With the starting rotation being an early surprise by producing six consecutive quality starts, it gives the Pirates a grace period to build up Skenes.

The starters were impressed enough in spring training to know Skenes is coming sometime soon, as left-hander Marco Gonzales called him someone “who’s probably going to take one of our jobs eventually, who is probably going to be the best pitcher in baseball someday.”

With All-Star right-hander Mitch Keller locked into a five-year, $77 million contract extension and 22-year-old rookie Jared Jones looking sensational in his first two starts, the addition of Skenes could give the Pirates a powerful 1-2-3 punch in their starting rotation.

“I have eyes, and I’ve seen him throw,” Gonzales said. “You just watch the swings that are being taken, and you can tell. The same swings are being taken with Jonesy. I don’t get a lot of those swings, so I marvel at those swings. I’ve seen a lot of guys throw a lot of baseballs and I’ve seen a lot of prospects throw a lot of baseballs, and those two guys are special, for sure.”

3D tracking -- Paul Skenes 100+ mph K's from his Triple-A debut pic.twitter.com/uqzjsbXSo3

— David Adler (@_dadler) April 1, 2024

The difference is in their workloads.

A 2020 second-round pick, Jones pitched 122 2/3 innings at High-A Greensboro in 2022 and 126 1/3 innings split between Altoona and Indianapolis last season. He had shown the ability to go deep into games as a professional before making the active roster.

Skenes was a two-way player who also played catcher at Air Force, where he pitched 26 2/3 innings as a freshman and 85 2/3 innings as a sophomore before focusing full-time on pitching at LSU. He pitched 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts for the Tigers. Add his minor-league experience, and Skenes increased his volume by 44 2/3 innings from 2022 to 2023. Another big jump could be hazardous to his health.

Beyond that, the Pirates also don’t want to rush such a prized prospect. They promoted 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis last season because of his bat but had him playing out of position in right field before moving him back to catcher this season. For Skenes to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, the Pirates have to develop him as a starter.

If the Pirates are looking for a blueprint to follow, Baltimore is a good barometer. The Orioles have had No. 1 overall picks in catcher Adley Rutschman and Holliday, and shortstop Gunnar Henderson was the No. 1 prospect and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez a top-10 prospect in 2023.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said the conversations on promoting top prospects are a collaborative effort that go on for a long time before the decision to make their major-league debuts. Even then, it can be a crapshoot.

“You never know if someone’s ready until they get there — and then you still don’t know for a while,” Hyde told TribLive at Grapefruit League media day this past February in Tampa. “From Triple-A to the big leagues is the biggest jump there is, and it’s not even close. How a young player is going to handle that, you just do your best at gauging if they’re physically ready, if they’re mentally ready, if you feel like they can handle the big leagues. Then you take it from there and hope for the best, honestly. … So I think fans have to be patient a little bit. Just because they’re a highly touted prospect doesn’t mean there’s going to be instant success because the levels are that much different.”

Skenes is special, so the countdown is on for him to check boxes and tell the Pirates when he’s ready.