Analysis: Despite a disappointing offseason, the Pirates — fingers crossed — should be better

When the Pittsburgh Pirates completed a season that marked a 14-win jump, Ben Cherington acknowledged the importance of their improvement but stressed the need to keep getting better.

The Pirates general manager knows a 76-win season and fourth-place finish in the National League Central isn’t satisfactory.

“It starts with me and doing my job really well this offseason to find ways to make the roster better, continue to put us in a position to be stronger going into spring training,” Cherington said in October. “Our focus will be the same: Continued improvement, take another step. I believe if I do my job well and we all do our job well — including the players — this offseason, we can do that. Progress made. Not satisfied.”

What Cherington has delivered is viewed as a dud. The Pirates were desperate for starting pitching, and he traded for left-hander Marco Gonzales — who is coming off surgery for a nerve issue — and signed lefty Martin Perez. They had a gaping hole at first base and signed slugger Rowdy Tellez in hopes he would have a bounce-back year. They needed depth in the outfield and traded for Edward Olivares and Billy McKinney. The Pirates made a no-brainer by bringing back fan favorite Andrew McCutchen as designated hitter, then fired a fastball by signing seven-time All-Star lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman to serve as setup man to two-time All-Star closer David Bednar.

The Pirates didn’t sign any free agents to multi-year deals nor did they extend any of their returning players. Bednar and All-Star ace Mitch Keller got generous bumps to avoid arbitration but will continue to be viewed as trade candidates without long-term deals.

A frustrated fan base wanted more, like seeing the Pirates sign big-name free agents Cody Bellinger or Rhys Hoskins or trading for an ace like Dylan Cease. Those were always unrealistic expectations. Instead, Cherington plugged holes by spending about $31 million on the new additions, the same amount as last offseason. The Athletic graded the Pirates a D for their offseason.

The idea that the Pirates were suddenly going to start spending wildly was always a fantasy. They had a $73 million Opening Day payroll last year, the fourth-lowest in baseball. The front office has been resolute in adherence to its plan of how to build a sustainable contender, which is why the spending has been focused on the MLB Draft and international signings.

“We believe and we know — and I think everybody knows — that a Pirates team that’s winning is going to be full of guys that come through the system, that come through our development program, draft, international or guys we identified as younger players in a trade,” Cherington said last month at PiratesFest. “That is always going to form the core of Pirates winning teams. We can use offseasons, whether it’s free agency or trades, to build deeper rosters and to find the right complementary players.”

Even so, the Pirates should be better.

They won 29 of 57 games over the final two months despite relying on only two traditional starting pitchers, Keller and Johan Oviedo, who is out for the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery. Now they have three starters, with the hope that Perez and Gonzales are upgrades over Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. They also are counting on a combination of Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz or Quinn Priester to fill the other two spots in the starting rotation until JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows are ready to return after the All-Star break or top prospects Paul Skenes and Jared Jones make their major-league debuts.

The bullpen has been bolstered by the addition of Chapman, who still possesses one of the best fastballs and strikeout rates in baseball even if his walk rate is a concern. It allows for the possibility of lefty Ryan Borucki and righties Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Selby to serve as openers instead of high-leverage relievers to demand less of Contreras, Falter, Ortiz and Priester. The Pirates have lefty Jose Hernandez and righty Dauri Moreta as firemen and sinkerballer Colin Holderman as a setup bridge.

Given his popularity and team-best .378 on-base percentage, McCutchen is a bargain at $5 million who is one home run shy of his career 300th. Where Tellez is a defensive downgrade from Carlos Santana at first, he does present power potential. Tellez hit 35 home runs in 2022, so his $3.2 million deal — worth another $800,000 in incentives — is a low-cost risk if he can repeat that production.

And Olivares serves as another right-handed hitter who can play all three outfield spots.

But Cherington admitted that taking the next step of becoming a contender is “more difficult.”

“It’s not going to be easy. It’s going to require all of us to dig even deeper and be better in every kind of way,” Cherington said. “I think we start the offseason, at a broad level: How do we score more runs and how do we give up fewer?”

The Pirates had a minus-98 run differential last season, the NL’s fourth-worst. While the rest of the starting rotation remains a mystery, the bullpen should be formidable. The greater concern is at catcher. After losing Endy Rodriguez to season-ending elbow surgery, backup Jason Delay is their only experienced catcher. Henry Davis, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, will get a shot at the starting job but remains raw. The Pirates signed a Sanchez (Ali) but not the one fans wanted (Gary).

How will the Pirates improve their offense? Only two NL teams scored fewer than their 692 runs. Even the 59-win Colorado Rockies scored more runs (721). That answer is internal. They are counting on career years from Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, all of whom are entering their primes.

And the Pirates are banking heavily on Oneil Cruz to provide the missing production. If Cruz can return to his rookie form, he projects to hit 31 homers and 101 RBIs over a full season. That’s asking a lot of a 6-foot-7 shortstop coming back from a fractured left ankle that caused him to miss all but nine games last year. But Cruz is considered a unicorn, so anything is possible.

If that sounds more like fingers crossed than a fool-proof plan, so be it.

After starting the season 20-9 and finishing with a flourish, Pirates players believe they will be better than expected.

“I think we always are focused and all that, but I think the focus this year should be making the playoffs,” Reynolds said at PiratesFest. “Not just trying to make strides but making tangible strides where we’re winning and in the playoffs. I don’t think that’s too far-fetched. I think that should be the goal.”

It should always be the goal. But, like this offseason, maybe not the expectation.