Kevin Gorman’s Take 5: Start to 2nd half should answer key questions for the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates open the second half of the season Friday with more questions than answers, especially after winning 20 of their first 30 games followed by winning only 21 of the next 60.

Let’s start with this: Was April an anomaly?

If so, is another late-season collapse inevitable?

When healthy, the Pirates compiled the best record in the National League. Once injuries began to mount, their season started to slide. The Pirates went from 12 games over .500 on April 29 to nine games under by July 8, dropping from first to fourth place in the NL Central.

After losing 100 games in back-to-back seasons, it was obvious their 111-win pace in April wasn’t sustainable. The Pirates are now on track to win 73 games, though maintaining their .344 winning percentage since May would have them finishing with 66 wins.

The post-trade deadline has been brutal for the Pirates, who lost 17 of their next 21 games last year and 15 of 17 in 2021. To avoid another free fall, the Pirates need a strong start before the Aug. 1 trade deadline and to absorb any deals they make better than in the past.

Playing three-game series against San Francisco and the Cleveland Guardians at PNC Park and road trips at the Los Angeles Angels and San Diego Padres before returning home to play the Philadelphia Phillies makes that a tough task.

Here are five things to watch for in the second half:

1. Sorting out the starters: With 18 quality starts in April, the starting rotation carried the Pirates. Since then, they have lost Vince Velasquez to season-ending right elbow surgery.

Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz have been ineffective and were demoted to work on their delivery mechanics.

The probable starters for the three-game series against the San Francisco Giants has lefty Rich Hill pitching Friday, Johan Oviedo on Saturday and Osvaldo Bido on Sunday.

Then what?

That leaves All-Star Mitch Keller to anchor the rotation, but the Pirates need to add another starter.

One possibility is 2019 first-round pick Quinn Priester, a 22-year-old right-hander who is 7-3 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 84 strikeouts against 35 walks and a .251 batting average against in 86 2/3 innings over 17 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis.

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2. Getting healthy: Where the Pirates limped into the All-Star break, they could come out of it as healthy as they have been this season.

Left-handed reliever Jose Hernandez (right calf) became eligible to return from the 15-day injured list July 3, and second baseman Ji Hwan Bae was eligible to return from the 10-day IL on Wednesday.

Designated hitter Andrew McCutchen (right elbow) is eligible to to come off the IL on Sunday, and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (low back) could come back Monday.

Their returns, however, will force some roster moves.

3. Dealing at deadline: The Pirates are eight games out of first place in the NL Central, so their second-half start will be pivotal to whether they become buyers or sellers at the Aug. 1 deadline.

That decision might already have been made.

When the Pirates signed a handful of veterans to one-year contracts, it went without saying that most of them would be flipped at the trade deadline.

Lefty reliever Jarlin Garcia hasn’t pitched all season because of nerve damage, Velasquez was lost to season-ending surgery and Pirates chairman Bob Nutting has said he has no intention of trading the popular McCutchen again.

That leaves the 43-year-old Hill and 37-year-old first baseman Carlos Santana as the most likely trade candidates. Both have plenty of playoff experience, are positive influences in the clubhouse and have proven their value this season.

First baseman/designated hitter Ji-Man Choi, who spent 60 days on the injured list with a left Achilles strain, is another trade chip. Catcher Austin Hedges could be valuable to a contender for his defense, despite his bat. And outfielder Connor Joe could be a trade piece, especially if the Pirates go with a starting outfield of Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski and Henry Davis.

Contenders will be interested in All-Star closer David Bednar, a Mars native who has become one of the team’s most popular players and was their 2022 Roberto Clemente Award nominee for his active role in charitable and community affairs.

Trading Bednar would be a bad public relations move but also could bring back the best haul, something Pirates general manager Ben Cherington has to weigh.

The asking price should be steep.

4. Youth movement: With the promotions of former first-rounders Davis and Nick Gonzales, as well as top-30 prospect Jared Triolo, the Pirates are trending toward a more youthful roster.

The Pirates have the most invested in Davis, but after an impressive start, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick is batting .239/.333/.324 with three doubles, one home run and seven RBIs in 20 games, with 19 strikeouts against seven walks.

Gonzales and Triolo are faring better at the plate.

Gonzales is hitting .278 with an .810 OPS, four doubles, a triple, two homers and 11 RBIs in 16 games, while Triolo is batting .300 with a .364 on-base percentage, two doubles and five RBIs in 11 games. If there’s a concern, it’s that they have a combined 31 strikeouts against five walks.

In addition to Priester, the Pirates have top prospect Endy Rodriguez waiting to make his major-league debut. Where Rodriguez is primarily a catcher, he showed Saturday night in the All-Star Futures Game that he can play first base.

5. Big boost: Although there promises to be some major moves at the trade deadline, perhaps no team in baseball can add an impact player the way the Pirates can without giving up anything.

That, of course, depends on Oneil Cruz’s recovery.

The 6-foot-7 shortstop was expected to miss four months after fracturing his left ankle sliding into home plate on April 9. That puts him on track to return in August, although the Pirates have made it clear Cruz will require a rehab assignment and they won’t rush his return this season.

But the final two-plus months of the season could give a glimpse of what the Pirates lineup will look like next year, with the potential to feature Rodriguez, Gonzales, Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski and Davis.