Mark Madden: 49ers should stick with Jimmy Garoppolo, not what's left of Tom Brady

Which scenario is most likely re: San Francisco’s quarterback situation?

• Jimmy Garoppolo, at 28, builds on leading the 49ers to this past season’s Super Bowl and helps them challenge for the championship again.

• Tom Brady, 43, replaces Garoppolo, masters a new system while playing with new teammates, improves on his play with New England this past season and gets the Niners a ring (which is the only way Brady can top Garoppolo).

If you pick the latter, you’re betting on what Brady was, not is.

In 2019, Brady ranked 18th in passer rating and seventh in yards. Garoppolo was eighth in passer rating, 12th in yards (but his yards per attempt eclipsed Brady’s by 1.8).

Garoppolo got his team to the Super Bowl. Brady’s Patriots went 2-4 to finish the season. They lost a first-round bye by losing to the Miami Dolphins at Foxborough, then lost a wild-card playoff game to the Tennessee Titans (also at home). Garoppolo’s arrow is pointed up, Brady’s down.

Replacing Garoppolo with Brady could cause PR problems for the Niners.

An online poll conducted by a San Francisco news station showed local fans favor Garoppolo over Brady, 84 percent to 16.

A few 49ers took to social media to rally around Garoppolo. Running back Jeff Wilson called the potential switcheroo “ludicrous.” Star tight end George Kittle posted a photo of him and Garoppolo embracing.

Niners coach Kyle Shanahan reportedly is concerned about Garoppolo’s ceiling. That’s overthinking. Garoppolo got the Niners just shy of the NFL’s ceiling. At 43, what’s Brady’s ceiling?

If you’re looking for a tangible good reason to replace Garoppolo with Brady, those are in short supply. Doing so could wind up being one of the worst personnel decisions in the history of pro sports, especially if Garoppolo finds his way back to the warm embrace of Bill Belichick, who never wanted to trade him in 2017.

Belichick is the Patriots’ brain. Brady has been their ego. If Garoppolo returns, it gets Belichick back to his original succession plan at QB (after totally using up Brady, and after Garoppolo did an internship of sorts with the Niners).

Brady may be the best quarterback ever. He’s nowhere close to being the best quarterback now.

But that G.O.A.T. myth might romance San Francisco into making a terrible mistake. If not the Niners, then another team.

Brady seems determined to play until it ends bad. That’s his prerogative.

Brady can hasten that bad end if he intends, as rumored, to coerce whatever team he joins to sign Antonio Brown. That’s Brady indulging his ego by playing GM.

This is all about Brady’s ego: being constantly discussed on ESPN, Fox Sports, social media and everywhere else. Making every other free-agent quarterback wait in line until he makes his decision. Even running Garoppolo out of town for a second time.

But it’s also about Brady being a fool. His best chance of success is to stay in New England. He may yet do that — if Belichick acquiesces.

Belichick might not. A recent phone call between Brady and Belichick reportedly didn’t go well.

Brady’s suitors are indulging a weird amalgam of celebrity crush, fantasy culture and collecting football cards. Why would any team want a 43-year-old quarterback, regardless of his resume, who’s only played for one team, one coach and one system — especially at Brady’s price? Would Brady adjust? How long before he’s the de facto head coach?

If I’m the Niners, especially, it’s a hard pass.