The best thing that could realistically happen for the Steelers is to go 8-9 or worse.
To get out from under the phony non-achievement of Coach T never having a losing season. To then set the bar higher and take a hard look at the team as it really is, adjusting accordingly.
To no longer settle.
So, that’s what I’m predicting. What I’m hoping. 8-9.
The Steelers will surely finish somewhere in that range: Between 10-7 and 7-10. More likely low end than high end.
That’s the prediction.
Here are the negative factors:
• More than ever, the NFL revolves around quarterbacking. The Steelers’ QB room is among the league’s worst and starts the season shrouded in further doubt because of Russell Wilson’s calf injury.
• The wide receivers room is the league’s worst.
• The offensive line didn’t get fixed. It’s not done evolving, but the Steelers can’t afford a bad start.
• Their approach is outdated: Defense and keep it close. Today’s NFL is about scoring more and faster.
• The schedule is among the NFL’s most difficult.
• The AFC North may be the league’s best division.
• Third-and-long = third-and-death.
• If the Steelers trail by more than one score in the second quarter or later, they will lose 90% of the time. It’s not a team designed to engineer comebacks.
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Here are the positive factors:
• The defense is very good, with big-time playmakers. T.J. Watt is the NFL’s top defensive player. The Steelers’ best hope is for the defense to truly be elite, not just pretend elite.
• Wilson is past his prime, but knows what he’s doing. He’ll keep the offense organized.
• Oppenheimer is an upgrade at offensive coordinator. He could maximize what little he’s got. (Full disclosure: Oppenheimer was Atlanta’s head coach last year and the citizens there are overjoyed that he’s gone. He wasn’t blamed on a Matt Canada level, but close.)
• In theory, running back Najee Harris and tight end Pat Freiermuth are good fits for Oppenheimer’s offense and could emerge.
The positives fade quickly because they’re mostly theoretical. For example, I’d bet against Freiermuth blossoming.
The negatives, unfortunately, seem to mostly be cold, hard fact.
When the good is weighed against the bad, 8-9 seems charitable.
Could the Steelers develop and do better? Sure.
Could they win the AFC North? Not unless Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson get hurt and miss significant time.
Could they qualify for the playoffs? Yes. They will make it by a game or miss by a game.
The Steelers are closer to 6-11 than they are to 11-6.
The Steelers will lose at Atlanta on Sunday. They won’t outscore Kirk Cousins, Atlanta’s numbers machine of a quarterback. The Steelers will have trouble topping 20 points most games.
The Steelers’ limitations were revealed in absentia when Kansas City and Baltimore opened the NFL’s season with a cracker of a game on Thursday night.
Watching that game from a Steelers fan’s perspective, it looked like football from another planet, especially when Kansas City had the ball.
Sure, the Chiefs are two-time defending Super Bowl champs. To compare is unfair. But the gap between the Steelers and greatness is overwhelming.
As for Baltimore, their offense wasn’t impressive except when Jackson improvised and took off. But the Steelers don’t have anybody who can do that, either. (Actually, Justin Fields can. But not as well, and that’s all he can do. Fields is Lamar Jackson Lite.)
Anyway, 8-9.
I’ve predicted no worse than within one game of the Steelers’ win total in nine of the last 10 years. So bet over your head, not with it.
What the Steelers really need is to go 5-12 and draft their long-term quarterback. Missing on Kenny Pickett set the team back a minimum of five years, maybe more.
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