Mark Madden: Given Penguins' injuries, here's what must go right to keep playoff streak intact

If the Penguins were 100% healthy all season, they would definitely make the playoffs for a 16th straight year. But, as the campaign opens, they’re not.

Evgeni Malkin had knee surgery. He will miss two months, maybe three.

Sidney Crosby had wrist surgery. He was supposed to be out of action four to five games but might be able to return sooner.

Given those problems, certain things must happen. They are:

• Jeff Carter doesn’t have to function as a top-six center for the entire season. But he has to be serviceable while he does. He scored 13 goals in 20 games (playoffs included) after joining the Penguins last season. But he’s 36 and hasn’t topped 17 goals since 2016-17. Carter will have to deal with more minutes and tougher matchups, and make top line-level plays.

• Evan Rodrigues can’t stink as a top-six center. That’s a big ask for a career bottom-six that’s been known to be a healthy scratch.

• Goalie Tristan Jarry has to play very well. After last year’s playoff debacle, average won’t cut it. To earn trust and build his own confidence, Jarry must sparkle more often than not.

• Somebody has to break out as a goal-scorer. Winger Kasperi Kapanen had three goals in five preseason games and might be ready to add another level to his game and to his finishing. Kapanen is 25. His season high is 20 goals. It’s not quite “now or never” territory, but…

• Defenseman Kris Letang will be a free agent at season’s end and will be aware of that. At 34, Letang won’t have a career year. But he might come close. He dominated preseason. When Letang finishes his Penguins tenure, his minutes and duties will be almost impossible to replace.

• Defenseman John Marino needs to play like he did as a rookie in 2019-20, not like he’s played since. His sophomore slump has extended to this year’s preseason. He’s doing everything worse. Don’t give up on Marino, though. He’s a monster talent. He’s just lost the plot temporarily.

• Wingers Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust need to produce as they have been, and with Carter as their center instead of Crosby. Even though Rust had 49 goals in 111 games over the last two seasons, it’s easy to see him as a good third-liner who hit the linemate lottery. A Sidney Crosby creation. Rust is in the final year of his contract, which means a big year will price him out of Pittsburgh come free agency. But the Penguins need goals.

• Winger Jason Zucker has to do something. As in, anything. His skill and speed should make him a far better fit in Pittsburgh, but he’s got just 15 goals in 53 games since joining the Penguins. He doesn’t seem able to mesh with either Crosby or Malkin, perhaps because he carries the puck too much to play with either. Zucker needs to do better.

• Drew O’Connor needs to be a solid, big bottom-six winger. O’Connor had three goals in five preseason games, but won’t score much in the real games. But, at 6-foot-3, O’Connor can provide some of the added size the Penguins figured to add under GM Ron Hextall but haven’t yet, not really. Then again, Brian Boyle (6-7) and Radim Zohorna (6-6) could form a mean frontcourt.

• The Penguins’ power play finished fourth in the NHL last year with a conversion percentage of 23.7. Yet it won’t necessarily suffer in the absence of Malkin and Crosby. Malkin and Crosby aren’t polished power-play performers. They’re obviously not terrible, but it’s not their strength. The current power play could revolve around shoot-first players like Carter and Kapanen. It might hammer more pucks on net and more often seize momentum.

• The Penguins’ penalty-kill finished 27th last season with a 77.4 success rate. That’s atrocious and must improve drastically given the Penguins’ potential limitations when it comes to scoring. But the Penguins have lots of good penalty-killers. Their style isn’t flawed. The best penalty-killer needs to be the goaltender, and he hasn’t been.

• The Penguins will have trouble scoring in the absence of their superstars, and so need to be tighter defensively. That doesn’t mean a systemic overhaul. Just more accountability.

• The Penguins need to sell tickets. That won’t affect results, but the Penguins lost a ton during the pandemic and need every nickel they can get. There is less buzz about the new season than there’s been in years. Their sellout streak of 633 games seems in jeopardy. Opening night still has cachet and features Marc-Andre Fleury’s Pittsburgh debut with Chicago. But all bets are off after that. The Penguins play an eight-game homestand after opening with two games in Florida. (That’s bad timing: That’s football season in Pittsburgh and not yet hockey season.) They need Crosby back for that homestand. Crosby draws money.

Will the Penguins make the playoffs?

I’m not sure.

That’s better than saying no. But I’ve predicted “yes, definitely” for a long time.