Mark Madden Hot Take: Given Steelers' schedule, betting under 8.5 wins is tempting

I had planned to bet $5,000 on the Steelers to have less than 8½ wins (-134).

But the Steelers raised doubt by having a good preseason.

But their schedule is daunting.

Perhaps I should bet on the Steelers to have less than 9½ wins (-230). That seems like a lock, but the value for money isn’t terrific.

Maybe I shouldn’t wager on the Steelers’ record at all. (That’s the secret to being a smart gambler: Know when not to bet. But that’s no fun.)

Under 8½ still is tempting, though. Ben Roethlisberger played a few good series in the Steelers’ exhibition vs. Detroit. But that’s against a bad foe in a game that doesn’t count. Will Roethlisberger still be standing, say, when the Steelers host Tennessee in Week 15?

That’s what stinks about betting against the Steelers: You’re basically hoping Roethlisberger ages out or gets hurt. Both are decent possibilities, but not ones I want to root for.

I need to think that I’m betting against the offensive line. That’s more palatable on many levels.

It’s tempting to parlay under 9½ wins with the Steelers finishing third. The latter is at +110. (Second place is +275. That’s decent value, but for a reason.)

A bunch of prop wagers are available.

For example, a parlay of the Steelers winning the AFC North and Najee Harris winning Offensive Rookie of the Year pays +1600. I like the latter half of that bet, but not the former.

Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are +200 to combine for over 1,999½ receiving yards. Smith-Schuster would have to make a ton of 7-yard catches. I wonder what his over/under is for TikToks posted?