Mark Madden: Keeping 1st-round pick smart for Penguins, who aren't close enough to contend

As the March 3 trade deadline looms, locker rooms and fan bases in each NHL city clamor for their team to make a deal that gets it to the next level, even a Stanley Cup. False optimism can drive that sentiment even with teams that should be sellers.

Seems like a proper segue to discuss the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Every deal has risk. The Penguins, handicapped by nine full or partial no-movement clauses and having few easily tradable assets that other teams want, likely would have to take the risk of sacrificing more of an already dicey future.

GM Ron Hextall says he doesn’t want to trade the Penguins’ first-round draft pick. But what alternative is there?

The locker room expects to be improved. Sidney Crosby hasn’t missed the playoffs since his rookie year. Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin never have.

That core of three thinks the Penguins can still win. But it’s Hextall’s job to determine that.

For the Penguins to make a major deal, the minimum expected return should be to win their first-round playoff series. You’re trading for wins, not stats.

That deal doesn’t exist.

Say the Penguins trade their first-round pick and winger Kasperi Kapanen (the latter by way of cap-dumping) for St. Louis’ Ivan Barbashev, a solid third-line winger. He’s available.

Or take a step up and trade those assets for St. Louis forward Ryan O’Reilly, who could play on any of the top three lines. Or indulge fantasy and get Chicago winger Patrick Kane, the cream of the rental crop.

(Reality check: The Barbashev deal might be possible. No chance on the other two. The asking price for O’Reilly and especially Kane will be more.)

None of those swaps elevates the Penguins into third place in the Metropolitan Division, which would give them a chance to win their first-round playoff series.

None of those swaps gets the Penguins past a first-round playoff series against either juggernauts Boston or Carolina, one of which would almost certainly be the foe if the Penguins get a wild-card berth.

Not even Kane would be enough. The Penguins won’t get him anyway. But you get the idea.

Heck, the Penguins might not make the playoffs. Check the standings. But here’s betting they will because none of the teams pursuing has the potency or consistency to catch them.

Given lack of almost any positive guarantee no matter who the Penguins get, Hextall shouldn’t trade their first-round choice. It wouldn’t be worth it.

In terms of other assets that are desirable and easily traded, the Penguins don’t have any.

Can the Penguins rally and become the team they think they are and want to be? That seems improbable. What have we seen this season that points in that direction? They haven’t won a playoff series since 2018.

To overachieve, you’ve got to understand what you are. The Penguins won’t do that. They think they’re still the high-octane flying circus that won Cups in 2016 and ’17. They still try to play exactly the same.

Further complication is provided by the Tristan Jarry situation.

The Penguins’ starting goaltender hasn’t played since Jan. 22. He has been sidelined by what the team calls an upper-body injury. But it’s being reported Jarry has developed a chronic hip problem, and his inability to push off properly because of that hip is misplacing pressure and causing injury elsewhere.

Jarry missed practice Thursday, ostensibly to be seen by doctors. Doesn’t look like he’ll be playing anytime soon.

Never mind trading for third-line help. Should getting a goalie be the Penguins’ biggest priority? Who’s out there to get? Nobody great, that’s for sure.

If Jarry doesn’t return soon and stay in the lineup, it’s a lost season.

Don’t trade that first-round pick. The Penguins can’t win enough now. Rebuilding is nigh and will be rough. Don’t make it longer and harder.