Mark Madden: Kyle Dubas improved Penguins' bottom 6, but work remains to rebuild roster

The Dubas debut is well underway.

New president of hockey ops Kyle Dubas has made quite an impact on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster during his brief tenure, and it feels like he’s just getting started.

The bottom six is improved. Lars Eller and Noel Acciari are efficient, pragmatic centers. The third and fourth lines will spend far less time in the defensive zone. There’s better depth below the bottom six when injuries occur.

Reilly Smith replacing Jason Zucker at wing is a lateral move. Smith brings more versatility. Zucker contributed more fire.

The Penguins’ top six has great talent but will be stale. A further shakeup might help but probably won’t be forthcoming. Also, there’s nobody in the bottom six who can easily jump into the top six when somebody gets hurt.

Defenseman Ryan Graves is a legit top-four defenseman and likely will partner with Kris Letang. Graves is 6-foot-5 but doesn’t necessarily play big. He has been called a “shutdown defenseman,” but that terminology doesn’t really apply in today’s attack-first NHL. Graves is good on the penalty kill, decent with the puck. He’s a solid get.

My sleeper signing is defenseman Will Butcher, who won the Hobey Baker Award (college hockey’s Heisman) with Denver in 2017. Solid and efficient, it’s surprising he has not made more NHL impact. But, at left defense, he’s blocked from an NHL spot. So is Ty Smith, acquired from New Jersey in last year’s John Marino trade. Butcher and Smith both made NHL All-Rookie teams.

(Hats off to the departing Brian Dumoulin, by the way. He played 546 regular-season games, 81 more in the playoffs. Two Stanley Cups and a great soldier for the cause.)

The main discussion is goaltending.

The Penguins now have four: Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic, Casey DeSmith and Magnus Hellberg. Are any of them good enough?

Related:

• What will the Penguins do with 4 goaltenders on 1-way contracts?
• Tim Benz: Kyle Dubas getting lots of benefit of the doubt points following Tristan Jarry signing
• Madden Monday: On Tristan Jarry's new contract — 'The term is too much'

The re-upping of Jarry for too much ($5.375 million) and too long (five years) is not something I’d have done.

Jarry is hurt too much — five times in the previous 12 months as of season’s end — and he’s disappointed too often, not least when he blew the 2021 playoff series against the New York Islanders almost singlehandedly.

Jarry’s stats are good. He has made two All-Star events, but the NHL has trouble getting goalies to play in those three-on-three mockeries.

Jarry can look clunky in the crease, is inconsistent getting to the top of it, is overrated as a puckhandler and has yet to prove himself in big situations. His mental toughness can be questioned.

But no alternatives guaranteed better. Jarry is the devil the Penguins know.

I’ve campaigned for Dubas to take charge of the Penguins since March. I’m going to trust his plan and process.

But it’s odd that Dubas would overvalue a goaltender. That’s not his way.

Keeping Jarry is not the team-killing disaster those overreacting would have you believe. “IT RUINS SID AND GENO’S CHANCES OF WINNING AGAIN!”

Truth bomb: Those chances have run their course organically. The cessation thereof is nobody’s fault, least of all Jarry’s. Nobody wins forever, and this team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2018.

Here’s hoping Jarry stays healthy. That’s a good place to start. If he doesn’t, nothing good comes from retaining him. Perhaps Jarry reaps confidence from the faith his new contract shows.

Dubas hedged his bet by signing Nedeljkovic. He made the NHL’s All-Rookie Team with Carolina in 2020-21, posting a goals-against average of 1.90 and a save percentage of .932 in 23 games. Then he went to Detroit and flopped.

Will Nedeljkovic push Jarry? Probably not. But he’s a better backup than DeSmith. Definitely closer to starting caliber.

The wild card is the ongoing pursuit of Erik Karlsson, San Jose’s Norris Trophy winner as the NHL’s top defenseman despite being minus-26. (He did post 101 points. Flawed player, flawed award.)

It’s impossible to see how the Penguins handle Karlsson’s $11.5 million salary cap hit or whatever portion San Jose doesn’t retain. I also don’t see what assets the Penguins could give in return. Perhaps some third-team, cap-dump magic makes it work.

Karlsson’s biggest value would be fixing the Penguins’ power play, which has been an underachieving mess for too long.

Karlsson would provide that unit with a legitimate point man. A terrific distributor and playmaker. He’d help with zone entries.

Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are great players. They’re not great on the power play, merely good. Karlsson would run that power play. He’d take it over, if they let him.

Karlsson is a great fit for the Penguins in all aspects.

Without Karlsson, the Penguins are very borderline to make the playoffs. Just in, or just out.

With Karlsson, the Penguins make the playoffs and could win a series or two.