Mark Madden: Penguins are better than Islanders, but crazy things happen in the playoffs

The New York Islanders are the preferred first-round matchup for the Penguins. You asked for it, you got it. The players and staff likely feel the same, albeit quietly.

That’s sometimes when the trouble starts.

But that shouldn’t be the case on this occasion, the Islanders’ series sweep of the Penguins in 2019 duly noted.

It’s only two years later, but these aren’t those Penguins or those Islanders.

These Penguins counter system with system. Cheating on the offensive side of the puck has given way to intelligent weighing of risk vs. reward. They manage score and situation.

These Penguins have speed and skill through the neutral zone from back to front. Erik Gudbranson, Jack Johnson and Olli Maatta have been replaced on defense by Cody Ceci, Mike Matheson and John Marino. Brandon Tanev adds a lightning bolt at wing. Tanev, Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese give the Penguins a legit answer to the Islanders’ famous fourth line of Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin.

The Penguins defensive corps has the talent to move the puck through the neutral zone via skating or passing. It has the wheels to deal with the Islanders’ relentless forecheck.

The Penguins have won eight of 10. The Islanders have lost seven of 10.

The Penguins went 6-2 against the Islanders this season. That includes going 4-0 at PPG Paints Arena, where the series’ first two games get played. The Penguins are a league-best 22-4-2 at home. The Islanders are just 11-13-4 on the road.

Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov is quality, but his eye-popping stats mostly reflect his team’s defense-first system. Varlamov was second in save percentage (.929), third in goals-against average (2.04). But he’s no Robin Lehner, who stymied the Penguins in ’19 and was a Vezina Trophy (top goalie) finalist that year. Varlamov is nursing an injury. That could put rookie Ilya Sorokin in goal for Game 1.

Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry is a question mark. He never has won a playoff game, let alone a series. But Jarry had a solid year. Just don’t play too deep in the net.

Attack is where the Penguins have an overwhelming edge. The Penguins scored a league-best 196 goals. The Islanders scored 40 less. (The Islanders also allowed 28 less.)

The Penguins’ top-end offensive talent dwarfs the Islanders’. Center Matthew Barzal is the only Islanders forward who could crack the Penguins’ top six, and he’d have to move to wing. (Barzal is real good.)

The Islanders can labor to score, especially in the absence of power forward Anders Lee, out for the season after knee surgery. Winger Kyle Palmieri came from New Jersey at the trade deadline, but he scored just twice in 17 games. Center J-G Pageau was last season’s big deadline get, but he netted just 14 goals.

The Islanders just don’t score much. They tallied just 22 even-strength goals in their last 14 games. Their rigid system can stop foes, but it might stifle their own talent a bit.

A defenseman led the Islanders in assists. But Nick Leddy isn’t Paul Coffey.

After a season that saw them lose more man-games than all but three NHL teams, the Penguins might be 100% for the playoffs.

Sidney Crosby has seven goals in his last 11 outings, blazing a 200-foot trail each game. Evgeni Malkin still seems a bit gimpy but has four assists in four games since returning and mostly looks the part. Kris Letang got 45 points in 55 games, was a team-best plus-19 and had a brilliant all-around season. Letang added structure and sense without losing his game’s identity. That was no easy task.

Make no mistake: The Penguins’ chances revolve around the core three as much as ever.

With nine goals in 14 games since coming to Pittsburgh, Jeff Carter is a true wild card. The Penguins’ third line of Carter, McCann and Frederick Gaudreau might be a godsend. If only it had initials that fit together in snappy fashion. (GMC? Maybe get a truck sponsorship.)

Playoff series are funny. Crazy things occur sometimes.

Defenseman Ron Hainsey descended from the press box to be a stalwart in 2017’s Stanley Cup victory. Center Nick Bonino had 18 points in 24 playoff games when the Penguins won the Cup in ’16. Bonino never has produced at that rate since, nor did he before.

But mostly, crazy things don’t happen. The Penguins will beat the Islanders in six games, maybe five.