The next Pittsburgh Penguins GM has his work cut out for him.
He likely will have to package positive assets with negative surplus just to hit reset. Like trading, say, a third-round pick and Mikael Granlund for zilch just to get rid of Granlund.
If that sounds grotesque, it’s just an example.
Because the GM likely will have to sacrifice more than a third-round pick to get Granlund’s $5 million cap hit (for the next two seasons) off the books.
I’d suggest this year’s second-round pick, but ex-GM Ron Hextall already traded that. For Granlund.
But the biggest decision the GM immediately faces is what to do about the team’s goaltending.
NHL free agency starts July 1, with incumbent Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry set to hit the market.
Projections for Jarry’s next contract are all over the place. The low end is four years at $4 million-plus per, the high end is six years at $6 million-plus per.
As silly as it sounds, the high end seems more likely.
NHL goaltending is at low tide, as evidenced by the ongoing playoffs (besides Sergei Bobrovsky).
A colleague suggested signing the best Russian goalie in the Russia-based Kontinental Hockey League whose NHL rights aren’t owned. I’m not sure who that is, but it seems a decent idea.
Lots of teams need goalies. There are only a few truly good ones.
Jarry is hurt a lot. He’s provided the Penguins with several big-game disappointments, not least in the 2021 playoffs. His boneheaded turnover in the second overtime lost Game 5 of the Penguins’ first-round series with the New York Islanders, and ultimately the series. Jarry is 2-6 in playoff games.
But he’s a semi-proven No. 1 goalie. He’s 28. Teams will look at him and see quality. Jarry disappointed the Penguins, not them. Yet.
I wouldn’t sign Jarry except at a bargain price. I believe he’s always going to be hurt. I don’t trust him as a goalie.
But what’s Plan B?
A lot of goalies will be free agents. Just not great ones.
I’m not sure what price Semyon Varlamov would cost. He’s 35. (That’s not too old for the elderly Penguins.) His expiring four-year contract with the New York Islanders carried a $5 million cap hit. I’d rather have Varlamov on a two-year, $10 million deal than Jarry at what he’ll get. (I’d try to give Varlamov less.)
Will Toronto re-up Ilya Samsonov? Samsonov, 26, had a one-year, $1.8 million deal this past season.
I’d just like to get a Russian goalie. Pretend he’s Andrei Vasilevskiy or Ilya Sorokin. Or Vladislav Tretiak, even.
We could review many more possible gets: Carolina’s Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta, the New York Rangers’ Jaroslav Halak, Seattle’s Martin Jones, Ottawa’s Cam Talbot, Los Angeles’ Joonas Korpisalo. All are scheduled to be free agents.
But the initial decision is whether to trust Jarry.
The Penguins shouldn’t, not at the price the market will dictate.
Jarry’s stats were below average: 29th in goals-against average at .290, 20th in save percentage at .910.
As of season’s end, Jarry had missed five stretches injured inside the past year.
Jarry faded late in the season.
During one stretch from late February through mid-March, he got pulled four times in 10 games. Jarry lost four of his last six starts. He was wretched in the soul-crushing 5-2 home loss to rotten Chicago in the season’s penultimate game: Three goals allowed on 25 shots. That kept the Penguins out of the playoffs.
Was Jarry playing hurt? If he was, so what? It’s all part of the same disappointing story.
Jarry almost never steals games. He’s got talent, but it isn’t overwhelming.
The Penguins locker room dislikes change. Switching No. 1 goaltenders would be a big one.
Let’s hope it’s done, and that it’s one change of many. It’s what the Penguins need.
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