Mark Madden: Shohei Ohtani is a phenomenon, but $700 million baseball return is unlikely

Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers is the biggest expenditure on an athlete in sports history.

But there will, ultimately, be a bigger one. There always is.

It’s hardly shocking. You could have predicted his destination and (roughly) the amount even before Ohtani hit free agency. He wasn’t going to go back to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. (I’ve never seen anybody fight a ham.)

It will likely turn out to be a bad deal in terms of pure baseball return.

Ohtani, 29, has had the elbow of his throwing arm cut twice, including one full-blown Tommy John surgery in 2018. The most recent procedure, which was performed in September, will keep Ohtani from pitching in 2024 and there’s obviously doubt about his long-term future on the mound.

So the Dodgers paid $700 million for a DH.

Ohtani’s primary value is his combination of pitching and hitting. He’s two stars in one. But now he’s not, and maybe permanently.

Ohtani gets compared to Babe Ruth because Ruth also pitched early in his career. But Ohtani isn’t Ruth.

Compare their numbers, especially in the context of their times. Nobody compared to Ruth then. Several are in Ohtani’s class offensively now. He may be the best, but it’s a crowded house. Seven players had a higher WAR than Ohtani last season. Is Ohtani worth $30 million more per season than Aaron Judge?

So, as a player, Ohtani isn’t Ruth. But as a phenomenon, he compares.

Veteran MLB scribe Bob Nightengale estimates that Ohtani’s prior team, the Los Angeles Angels, brought in $25 million per year in Ohtani-related marketing revenue. The Dodgers will likely do better. That goes a long way toward paying Ohtani. (The Dodgers drew an MLB-best 3.8 million fans last season, so a drastic increase in attendance seems improbable.)

Ohtani is deferring lots of his salary, like Bobby Bonilla’s famous deal with the New York Mets. That enables the Dodgers to sidestep heavy luxury-tax penalties and keeps the price of Dodger Dogs reasonable. Or at least as unreasonable as they already are: $6.99.

The Dodgers were bidding against themselves, as rich teams do. It’s reported that the Dodgers upped their offer by $100 million late in the negotiations.

The second-highest bid was likely well short of $700 million. It surely wasn’t $699 million, and it surely wasn’t the Pirates.

Ohtani’s contract illustrates the disparity between the haves and have-nots in MLB. Duh.

But MLB has, to a degree, countered that sort of bad PR by adding so many layers of playoffs that a team like Arizona can fluke its way into the World Series last year despite the 21st highest payroll. Pirates fans can point at the Diamondbacks and say, “See? That could be us!”

Except it won’t be. It’s parody, not parity.

By the way, Arizona’s payroll of $119 million was $44 million higher than the Pirates’ payroll of $75 million. Ohtani’s average annual value of $70 million is just $5 million less.

The Pirates say they’re going to increase payroll in 2024. But they haven’t yet. It’s trending to be less.

The Pirates’ big get so far this offseason is a pitcher who underwent surgery for nerve damage in his throwing arm. Good thing that doesn’t sound too ominous.

At least they won’t be paying him $700 million.