Mark Madden: Steelers would be smart to delay T.J. Watt's contract extension

One of the problems with a column composed of refreshing sports notes — well-read as those tend to be — is it exhausts ideas for future columns.

Take, for example, this excerpt from one such recent piece:

(T.J.) Watt might not get the lucrative contract extension he wants before the season. The Steelers should let Watt’s deal expire, then franchise him for one or two seasons. That might make Watt feel disrespected, and he likely would express that. Too bad. That would entail the least risk for the Steelers. Watt’s brother, J.J., started getting chronically injured at 27. T.J. is 26.

One paragraph isn’t enough to tell that tale. Allow me to expand upon that thought:

J.J.’s injury history won’t necessarily be repeated by T.J., but being J.J.’s brother certainly has resulted in T.J.’s worth being theoretically heightened. It might have driven his draft status up a bit, for example.

Football believes in bloodlines. So don’t do so conveniently.

Franchising T.J. when his contract expires after this season (and again for the 2023 season, if needed) enables the Steelers to see how T.J. ages. Does he get hurt? Does his play decline?

J.J. signed a six-year deal worth $100 million in 2014. It set a record for average annual value among defensive players. But since turning 27, he has had only one worthwhile season out of five, making first-team All-Pro in 2018. He’s played just 60% of his team’s games in that span.

T.J. will seek an average annual value of $28-30 million with a signing bonus of $35 million. He wants quarterback money.

Joey Bosa’s contract with the Los Angeles Chargers has an AAV of $27 million. Myles Garrett’s AAV with Cleveland is $25 million. T.J. wants to be the highest-paid edge rusher. T.J. is scheduled to make $10 million for 2021.

The projected franchise tag price for an outside linebacker in 2022 is $17 million. In 2022, via franchising, the Steelers could pay T.J. over $10 million less than his desired AAV without the risk of a long-term deal.

Edge rusher Bud Dupree got franchised last season. Let’s see how he performs in Tennessee after signing a five-year deal worth $82.5 million this past March. Dupree is 28.

The Steelers franchised running back Le’Veon Bell in 2017 and ’18. Bell sat out 2018, and his career since has disintegrated. Good move by the Steelers.

T.J. hasn’t done much in the playoffs during his four seasons. (To be fair, the Steelers have barely been in the playoffs.) He’s played two postseason games, posting no sacks, no interceptions, no forced fumbles, no fumble recoveries and one tackle for loss.

T.J. also clings to often sitting a series in the fourth quarter, even when the game is up for grabs. That makes zero sense. Suck it up.

How good will the Steelers be once Ben Roethlisberger retires, presumably after this season? Will it be worth paying one defensive player an AAV of $28-30 million? Would that money be better spread around to undertake a true rebuilding process, even if the Steelers won’t acknowledge it? How much does a player like T.J. matter on a non-contending team?

There’s no way to answer all those questions now. Applying the franchise tag buys the Steelers time to further consider. There’s definite gain via franchising Watt and nothing negative besides T.J. getting angry. Which he would, and he would verbalize that. T.J. might hold out, but that’s the lone risk the Steelers would take.

You should pay players for what they’re going to do. Not what they did.

But there’s not even a remote chance T.J. Watt gets franchised. He will get roughly what he wants.

There’s a good chance the Steelers will regret it.