Mark Madden: The Penguins need a head coach contingency plan

Mike Sullivan probably won’t leave the Pittsburgh Penguins to take New Jersey’s vacant coaching position this offseason.

Toronto probably will be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, triggering Sheldon Keefe’s dismissal as Maple Leafs coach.

It’s easy to see Keefe replacing Sullivan in Pittsburgh at some point.

Keefe was hired by Penguins president of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas to coach the Leafs when Dubas ran things (kind of) in Toronto. They previously worked together successfully with the Major Junior team in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. There’s a connection.

Keefe will implement Dubas’ vision. He will deploy the roster as designed. Is Sullivan doing that?

Assuming Sullivan doesn’t bolt for New Jersey — where he likely would become the NHL’s highest-paid coach, BTW — the Penguins should put a contingency plan in place.

When Keefe gets fired by Toronto, the Penguins should stash him in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton as their minor-league coach.

If Sullivan’s Penguins aren’t in a prime playoff position halfway through the upcoming season, terminate Sullivan and promote Keefe. (“Prime playoff position” equals first or second in the Metropolitan Division.)

Many of the citizens want Penguins history to repeat itself constantly, as per the big get at the NHL trade deadline.

Well, in two of the Penguins’ Stanley Cup wins, the Cup-winning coach came from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at midseason when the incumbent got canned: Dan Bylsma replacing Michel Therrien in 2009, Sullivan supplanting Mike Johnston in 2016.

Sullivan would understandably chafe with Keefe looking over his shoulder from across the state, but too bad. Tension can motivate. It can trigger change. The Penguins are an organization in need of more tension.

Anyway, Sullivan provided Johnston the same uneasiness in 2015-16, ultimately relieving him. So Sullivan would have no gripe.

I’m tired of saying “Sullivan is a great coach, but…”

Evidence dictates that he hasn’t been a great coach for a long time. The Penguins haven’t won a playoff series since 2018.

Sullivan is well and truly hockey’s version of Mike Tomlin: Outstanding at the start of his Pittsburgh tenure, disappointing since.

The Penguins are stale and have been for years. Their methodology has changed only marginally, if that, during Sullivan’s employment: “We want to play fast.” That aged out. It departed with players like Carl Hagelin.

The Penguins pay little attention to score, situation and foe.

The power play finished 30th in the NHL.

The Penguins won just four times out of 18 attempts in three-on-three overtime, often looking clueless. They don’t practice three-on-three.

The Penguins are steeped in arrogance. They refuse to even consider that there might be a better way.

The Penguins lost focus in the games surrounding the trade of Jake Guentzel, losing seven of eight.

If you don’t think all that reflects poorly on coaching, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news.

Sullivan’s resume since 2018 would get nearly any coach fired, especially given the perceived quality of his resources.

The Penguins can’t give Sullivan indefinite job security based on championships that keep getting smaller in the rear-view mirror.

So if Sullivan is still a good coach and the right coach for the Penguins, he should get 41 games to prove it. No more.

Here’s suspecting Sullivan is still a good coach. Just not for the Penguins. Not anymore. Too much is done by rote.

New Jersey is one of the NHL’s fastest teams, as evidenced by them beating the Penguins seven times out of the last eight head-to-head meetings. The Devils play fast. They don’t just want to.

If Sullivan went to New Jersey, it might be good for all concerned.

The Penguins need change. As this space has opined previously, if the coach and the team’s four big contracts all return, absolutely nothing will change. It will be the same team doing the same things.

Would Keefe do better?

Maybe not. The Penguins aren’t a good team anymore. They only have one Sidney Crosby.