Mark Madden: Unless the Penguins really heat up, Kyle Dubas must trade Jake Guentzel

The NHL trade deadline is March 8. The Pittsburgh Penguins must do a lot better between now and then to justify not trading winger Jake Guentzel, who is a free agent at season’s end.

For me, the minimum level would be top two in the Metropolitan Division, a reborn power play that lives up to its talent and a general feeling that the Penguins are legitimately capable of winning at least two playoff series.

The key word there is “legitimately.”

Hope isn’t a strategy. The Penguins haven’t won a single playoff series since 2018. They are currently three points out of a wild-card spot, five points out of third place in the Metro. They have won 21, lost 21. The Penguins look like the same old, same old.

Factor in the contract extension that winger William Nylander got from Toronto: eight years, $92 million.

Guentzel, 29, likely wants a deal of similar term, and for $9 million per year.

Guentzel reportedly wants to stay in Pittsburgh. (They all say that.) But if he gives a hometown discount, he’s insane. This is Guentzel’s last biggest payday.

President of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas isn’t currently negotiating with Guentzel’s agent, Ben Hankinson. Hankinson said “things could get ugly.”

Depends on how you define ugly.

If you trade Guentzel at the deadline, it’s a clean break.

If Guentzel gets to free agency, he’s not coming back.

If Dubas and Hankinson aren’t talking, there’s nothing ugly about that.

The only place this could get ugly is in the captain’s corner of the dressing room. But that would be a silent sort of ugly.

Sidney Crosby loves skating with Guentzel. Guentzel might be Crosby’s best winger ever, though Chris Kunitz was mega-valuable because he absorbed so much of the physical burden.

Crosby and Guentzel have a great understanding, both proficient at the give-and-go game in close quarters. Guentzel is a cunning finisher, good at puck retrieval and battles hard physically, though that’s likely to have taken a toll on his slight frame.

That might make Dubas rightly worry about contract length. Except he and Hankinson aren’t negotiating.

Guentzel is a fine player. He’s got 19 goals and 46 points, the latter figure tying him with Crosby for the team lead.

Guentzel is worth keeping. But at what price, at what length, and to what end?

This core is almost certainly done contending for Stanley Cups. Nobody wants to say that, and it’s folly to count out Crosby, not least because of how he’s playing right now.

But keeping Guentzel till season’s end and then letting him walk for nothing digs the hole deeper.

The Penguins could get a first-round pick, a big-time prospect and a player off their trade partner’s NHL roster for Guentzel, perhaps even a bit more. Guentzel would be extremely valuable to a legit Stanley Cup contender. His departure also clears cap space.

If Guentzel walks, you just get the cap space. What will have been gained by keeping him? Can these Penguins really win a couple of playoff series? How could it be concluded that’s probable?

Dubas must trade Guentzel unless the Penguins get red-hot between now and the trade deadline. If he doesn’t, he’s derelict in his duty. Or, more likely, had such dereliction dictated to him by ownership. I would hope Fenway Sports Group didn’t hire Dubas to be the caretaker of the nostalgia act he inherited.

Some believe the commitment made to Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang precludes trading Guentzel. That everything should be done with an eye toward winning because of their continued presence. Ex-Penguin Mike Rupp said as much on my radio program, fairly bristling when dealing Guentzel was brought up.

That was certainly the idea when Malkin and Letang re-upped a couple offseasons back. But that commitment must be justified by results. Otherwise, cut bait. Things don’t change unless they change. The Penguins have been stale for years.

You can’t forever tiptoe around players who won a lot but can’t anymore, at least not in Pittsburgh.

Besides, the Penguins won’t do a total rebuild. They might be better rather quickly after trading Guentzel. Dubas knows what he’s doing.