With Paul Skenes shining, Pirates under pressure to draft immediate help in 1st round

As the Pittsburgh Pirates bask in the buzz that surrounds Paul Skenes, who has gone from No. 1 overall pick to National League starting pitcher in the All-Star Game, they enter the MLB Draft with a top-10 pick for the fifth consecutive year.

With the No. 9 overall selection, however, they aren’t in position to draft another transformational, generational talent. Pirates general manager Ben Cherington vowed to take the “best player, best talent” available Sunday in the first round of the MLB Draft.

But there is a perception that because of the early success and club control over Skenes, fellow rookie right-hander Jared Jones and shortstop Oneil Cruz and long-term deals with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds and starting pitcher Mitch Keller, the Pirates have an open window for playoff contention that they must support by selecting a first-rounder who can reach the majors soon.

“You don’t draft for need. You don’t worry too much about what’s going on in the big leagues,” MLB.com analyst Jonathan Mayo said. “That said, you need to be realistic. It’s sort of human nature to turn to the guy that’s going to get there faster. Whatever the Skenes window is, you want to try to get help sooner rather than later.”

That theory will be tested in an MLB Draft with a prospect pool deep with college bats and a pair of high-ceiling prep shortstops. The Pirates will prove whether they are working toward a long-term plan or looking for players who can make a more immediate impact, especially at positions of major need in their minor-league system.

“It could be pretty important,” said MLB Draft analyst Keith Law of The Athletic. “There are still deficiencies in the system that they could probably address. They might be able to get a pretty good bat at that spot, and I still think that’s an organizational deficiency.”

The Pirates’ greatest organizational deficiency is at first base, and this draft has a pair of top-10 talents in Jac Caglianone of Florida and Nick Kurtz of Wake Forest. But first basemen are far from sure things in the draft, and both are expected to be gone before the ninth pick.

Perhaps that’s why multiple mock drafts predict the Pirates will select a power-hitting college outfielder, with Braden Montgomery of Texas A&M and James Tibbs III of Florida State the primary candidates.

James Tibbs going no-stride with two strikes played a huge part in his slashing of his K-rate from 32% as a freshman to just 11.5% this year. It doesn't work for everyone, but it surely gave Tibbs a safety net.

He hit over .280 with an OPS above .900 with 2 strikes this year. pic.twitter.com/jp72QVzmx8

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 12, 2024

MLB.com has the Pirates taking Tibbs, a 6-foot, 200-pounder who batted .363/.488/.777 with 28 home runs and 95 RBIs and had more walks (58) than strikeouts (37) this past season — only a year after having 48 walks against 49 strikeouts — and has some experience at first base.

“He just hits,” Mayo said. “He’s a left-handed hitter who knows what he’s doing at the plate. His approach has gotten a lot better. His strikeouts are down, and his walks are up and not just a little but a lot. He has at least above-average power. This is a guy whose bat could be in the lineup relatively quickly. Given the success he had a high-level college program, the thought process is he’d be able to relatively quickly.”

There's a LOT to like with Braden Montgomery.

✅ Pro body
✅ Plus power
✅ 70-grade arm

The @AggieBaseball star is squarely in the top 10 of our final big board. https://t.co/Za5YF0TfcN pic.twitter.com/z0aRI1oDhl

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 12, 2024

Law agrees that Tibbs could ascend through the minors quickly but doesn’t consider him a top-10 talent. That’s why he projected the Pirates to pick Montgomery, who was a two-way player at Stanford before transferring to Texas A&M for his junior season and leading the Aggies to the College World Series final.

Where that fits a similar career path as Skenes, who transferred from Air Force to LSU, Montgomery did the opposite by giving up pitching to concentrate on hitting. Law called Montgomery “very athletic” with a “great, great arm” and is impressed with his bat speed and hard-hit rate.

The 6-2, 195-pound switch-hitter batted .322/.454/.733 with 14 doubles, 27 homers and 85 RBIs before breaking his right ankle against Oregon in the Super Regionals, a potential blow to his top-five draft status that could benefit the Pirates if he slips to them.

“If he hadn’t hurt his ankle, he probably doesn’t even get there,” Law said. “I think he’s top-five talent in the class. If he does end up with the Pirates, they should be popping champagne corks. That would be exactly what they need: a high-upside guy with real power potential but who’s a college player and does offer you a little bit more of the certainty that comes with a college player.”

Though the Pirates have been linked to a number of other college players — Florida State third baseman Cam Smith, Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore, Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt and East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage most prominently — USA Today predicted they would pick a high school prospect in shortstop Konnor Griffin of Jackson (Miss.) Prep.

Konnor Griffin has all the tools! ????⚾️pic.twitter.com/84tN450I62

— Prospect Dugout (@prospectdugout) August 29, 2023

The 6-4, 215-pound LSU recruit was the Gatorade National Player of the Year after batting .559 with 39 RBIs, 87 stolen bases and 76 runs scored in leading Jackson Prep to its seventh consecutive state title. Griffin also was 10-0 with an 0.72 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings.

“The thing that makes you pause is Konnor Griffin has the best all-around tools in the class,” Mayo said. “Some scouts are not 100% convinced on the hit tool, but the rest are plus. Konnor Griffin has highest ceiling of anyone in the draft class.”

Count Law among those impressed with Griffin’s tools but unconvinced whether his bat will play as a professional.

“It’s power, speed, arm, body, defense — and I don’t know if he can hit. He hasn’t looked great against good competition,” Law said. “That might be the five-year guy who can turn into a superstar because he’s that good and that physically talented. He’s the guy who goes first in the draft in 1993. But we don’t do that anymore. We don’t just take the pure athletes and say, we can develop them. Sometimes, we can.”

‘24 SS Bryce Rainer (CA)

Reached base 4x on the day (3-for-5 2B)

Pulled up late on 4.2 run times & stole a couple bags.

Takes were impressive. Got off a few big cuts. On plane early w/ adjustability.

1st rounder. ????????#MLBDraft || @PrepBaseballCA pic.twitter.com/kWH4s0XJhM

— Shooter Hunt (@ShooterHunt) March 14, 2024

There are fewer questions with the bat of the other top prep prospect, shortstop Bryce Rainer of Harvard-Westlake (Calif.). A two-way star from a program that has produced major-league pitchers Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and Lucas Giolito, Rainer is a 6-3, 195-pound Texas recruit with a 95 mph fastball who is concentrating on being a position player.

The lefty-hitting Rainer shined at the National High School Invitational in April, batting .538 (7 for 13) with two doubles and five walks without a strikeout and produced the top four exit velocities at the event.

“Bryce Rainer could be the next Corey Seager,” Mayo said. “Rainer had a great week. It wasn’t just a recency bias. (Scouts) felt Rainer was the better hitter, more confident in his hit tool.”

The Pirates’ choice could change if someone projected to be picked before them slips in the draft. Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana and Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon are considered the top two prospects, with Mars alum and West Virginia middle infielder J.J. Wetherholt a possible No. 1 overall pick if the Cleveland Guardians decide to go below-slot value. Caglianone and Kurtz, along with Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith, also are expected to go in the top seven.

The Pirates have spent the past week preparing for every scenario in their draft war room, as Cherington warned about the importance of getting “the list in the right order so that when it’s time to pick on Sunday” they won’t second-guess their choice.

“Those are the conversations that are likely happening in the Pirates’ draft room,” Mayo said. “Do you take the guy with the higher ceiling or the guy with the higher floor who can get to the majors faster?”