'Years in the making:' After struggles as starter, Pirates' Mitch Keller evolves into ace

When Mitch Keller hears his name mentioned as a potential All-Star and Cy Young candidate after the first two months of the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander can’t suppress his smile.

Then Keller makes it clear he’s in no way satisfied with the early success.

What Keller really wants is to be an ace.

“It’s definitely cool to see the success and the accolades that come with it,” Keller said. “Everyone has those goals. I really want to be an All-Star, so hopefully I can keep going and I get the chance to be there. I think that would be awesome. … My main goal right now is to keep it going, be as consistent as possible and go out there and try to execute as much as possible because that’s what led me to success.”

Keller knows all about trying to live up to lofty expectations, going from the Pirates’ top pitching prospect to a disastrous debut dubbed the Memorial Day Massacre, then being demoted to Triple-A two years ago and bumped to the bullpen last season while working on his weaknesses.

Now in his fifth major league season, Keller (6-1, 3.01 ERA) is tied for the National League lead in wins and innings pitched (68 2/3) and ranks second in WHIP (1.02), strikeouts (85), strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.31) and quality starts (eight). He is one of four NL starters to toss a shutout, throwing a four-hitter in a 2-0 win over Colorado on May 8, and followed that start with a career-high 13 strikeouts in a 4-0 win over Baltimore on May 14.

Keller hadn’t allowed a walk in 20 innings when Kolten Wong drew one in the fifth Friday night. Keller’s five-game streak with eight or more strikeouts and one or fewer walks, the longest by a Pirates pitcher since 1901, ended when Wong drew another walk in the seventh inning. Even so, Keller recorded eight strikeouts to stretch that streak to six games, the longest by a Pirates pitcher in the modern era.

That the 27-year-old Keller has developed into one the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball is a reminder of how far he’s come.

“I think this has been years in the making,” Keller said. “I knew I was good in the minor leagues and was very successful. Coming up here and not doing well was a very humbling moment. It was kind of a kick in the mouth. It puts you back where you need to be to refocus and show you what the game is telling me. It was all just a learning experience. I feel like I’ve been this good before in the minor leagues. I’ve felt this good and this confident. Now it’s back where I feel in control of everything and really confident out there.”

‘Awesome to watch’

That confidence and conviction in his pitches is evident, especially since Keller added a sinker and sweeper to his four-seamer, cutter, curveball and changeup to complete what is now a six-pitch repertoire.

“He’s using the two-seam to both sides of the plate on both lefties and righties. He’s using that cutter to lefties to run it on them. Now he’s using that sweeper to both lefties and righties,” said Pirates pitcher JT Brubaker, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. “For a hitter to be able to cover both sides with all three of those pitches, just the development of him finding his lane, finding his confidence in his pitches, the aggressiveness he’s showing on the mound in attacking hitters is really awesome to watch.”

What really caught Brubaker’s eye while watching Keller on television was the extra oomph on the finish of his pitches that shows full confidence in his execution. From behind the plate, Pirates catcher Austin Hedges sees the same thing.

“The way I describe it as ‘having teeth.’ When pitches have teeth, that’s bite, that’s sharpness,” Hedges said. “When a slider looks like it hits a wall and just breaks in the opposite direction. When he’s going well, his four-seam … just zooms at the last second. With his slider, his curveball, even his changeup and cutter, when he’s clicking it, it’s going in one direction and then it just hits a wall and darts. Those are the hardest pitches to hit because hitters are seeing that ball and it’s not just moving away from them, it is sharply breaking away from them. When he has that going, man, he’s tough to hit.”

That’s true, no matter what Keller throws. Opponents are batting .227 against his changeup, .250 against his cutter, .200 against his sinker, .196 against his sweeper and .181 against his four-seam fastball, which Keller throws on a quarter of his pitches. By controlling the strike zone, his strikeout rate has increased from 7.8 per nine innings last year to 11.1 this season while his walk rate went down from 3.4 to 2.1.

“Once you get a little bit of confidence, you step on it more and keep going,” Keller said. “That all comes with confidence. Any pitcher will tell you that the more confidence you have, the more you’re able to spin it and do all different types of things with the baseball. I feel like I’m in complete control out there.”

‘Go out there and survive’

That’s a far cry from Keller’s major-league debut, where he appeared overwhelmed while giving up a grand slam in a six-run first inning at Cincinnati on May 27, 2019.

That former Pirates manager Clint Hurdle allowed him to complete that inning and pitch three scoreless frames gave Keller the confidence he could compete. But he went 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA, only made five starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and was demoted to Indianapolis after giving up four runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 10, 2021.

“Expectations out of the minor leagues, there was a lot put on me,” Keller said. “I don’t know if I was ready to handle all of it. I wasn’t really thinking about that. I was just trying to go out there and survive out there.”

While training at Tread Athletics during the lockout, Keller rediscovered the velocity on his four-seamer by hitting triple digits. He still struggled to find consistency and, after going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA in his first seven starts, the Pirates moved Keller to the bullpen.

After a pair of relief appearances, Keller returned to the rotation and posted a 3.22 ERA over his final 22 starts.

“It’s just a testament to him going home in that offseason in ’21 and even last year and figuring out how to get back to pitching with confidence,” said Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, Keller’s former roommate in the minors. “That’s the main thing that sticks out to me — his pitching with conviction, not being too unsure of himself. He’s like, ‘Here, I’m throwing it. Do your best to hit it.’ It’s been awesome to see him pitch the way he’s done this year. He’s won us a lot of games. Even if he didn’t get the win, he gave us the chance to get the win. I feel like he’s our ace.”

Since returning from the bullpen, Keller is showing the makings of an ace: He’s 10-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings over 33 starts, averaging 9.1 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. Keller is 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 starts this season.

Pirates manager Derek Shelton sees a newfound maturity in Keller, callling him “a different cat than he was a year ago.” Where fans once wondered why Shelton left a struggling Keller in games, now they criticize him for taking Keller out after throwing 84 pitches in six innings in a 4-3 loss to Arizona on May 20 at PNC Park.

“This is the same guy two years ago that people wanted to know why he was in the rotation and what we were doing,” Shelton said. “He continued to grind and continued to be open to new things. It’s the prototypical story of a prospect who comes to the big leagues, and the big leagues is hard. You have to adjust. You have to get better. The fact that people are talking about him in those conversations, I’m very proud that he is continuing to grow.”

Per Statcast, Keller ranks in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate (28.7%), down from a career-worst 47.5% in 2021. His strikeout rate has increased from 19.6% in ’21 to 30.5% this season, while his walk rate has dropped from a career-worst 20.7% in 2020 to 5.7% this season.

If Keller looks like a different pitcher, it’s not by accident.

“Just watch him pitch, and you can answer that,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “If you want to look at some of the metrics, those have changed, too, so it’s not fake what he’s doing. He’s made real, real improvement, and it’s exciting to see. It’s exciting for him. It’s exciting for our team. It’s a great story about what improvement can be possible when a talented pitcher, in this case, really makes the decision to do the training and make the changes that he has and it’s been fun to watch.”

Ace up his sleeve

Hedges sees Keller’s confidence rising and believes there’s more to come, so he’s not shy about reminding Keller of all that he’s overcome or hyping him as an All-Star and Cy Young Award candidate.

“I’m still not sure he understands how good he is,” Hedges said. “I think he’s a bona fide top-tier ace in this league. I think he’s eventually going to get paid like it.”

Keller became eligible for arbitration for the first time this past offseason and agreed to a one-year contract for $2,437,500. That might have been a shortsighted move on the Pirates’ part. They have discussed a long-term contract extension – in mid-March, The Athletic projected a hypothetical for a five-year, $45 million deal — but Keller’s asking price is sure to increase with his improved performance.

Keller, however, is enthusiastic about the prospect of joining Hayes and outfielder Bryan Reynolds as a committed franchise cornerstone and the ace of the staff.

“That’d be awesome,” Keller said. “Not too many guys get those talks, so it’s awesome when you do. If something works out, great. If not, we’ll see what happens. I would love to be here in Pittsburgh. It’s the team that drafted me. I’ve been here my whole career. I’ve seen playoff runs, wild cards, bad seasons, I’ve been part of bad seasons. To be here for the long term, hopefully I’ll win a World Series here.”